On most days, Israeli cities hum with the busy routine of daily life, but this fragile calm is highly deceptive.
Hamas and other terrorist organizations work tirelessly to organize major attacks on these cities, according to security sources, and their efforts are continuous.
The Shin Bet (domestic intelligence agency) and the Israel Defense Forces seek to stay one step ahead of terrorist cells and usually manage to do so due to their widespread coverage of the West Bank.
Yet all it takes is one successful large-scale atrocity to change the entire picture.
Most of the threats that come up on the Shin Bet’s radar are detected in their their formation and preparation stages before they mature into attacks.
Using a combination of signals intelligence, human intelligence, cyber intelligence, and other, classified techniques, the Shin Bet’s efficiency in preempting the many plots has kept Hamas bombs from blowing up in crowded areas in recent weeks.
The Shin Bet has also stopped gunmen from embarking on shooting sprees on the streets of Israel and on the roads of the West Bank.
“Members of the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, take part in a rally marking the 29th anniversary of the creation of the movement on December 16, 2016”
Security sources say most of the big terrorist “infrastructure” they have come across in the West Bank is set up by Hamas.
They define infrastructure as the organized recruitment of members, the transfer of funds for training and weapons purchases, the assembly of explosives, and the selection of targets.
In a big majority of these cases, the West Bank cells are orchestrated by Hamas in Gaza, or by Hamas’s overseas terrorism bureau, led by senior operative Salah Arouri, who was based in Turkey until recently and is now in Qatar.
Security sources say Hamas is pursuing twin goals in trying to set up attack bases in the West Bank. The first is to murder Israeli civilians and security personnel – a central aspect of Hamas’s jihadist ideology.
The second is to provoke a big IDF counter-terrorism operation in the West Bank, which Hamas hopes would lead to the collapse of its rival, the Fatah-run Palestinian Authority.
Hence, Hamas is a central player in inciting West Bank Palestinians to violence (as seen during the “lone wolf” attacks or the actions of small, local groups of terrorists), while at the same time, it remains focused on building its own larger cells, and priming them to strike.
Some of the cells are thwarted by the Palestinian Authority’s security services, which are operating out of self preservation, based on the recognition that Hamas is their enemy. Most are thwarted by the Shin Bet and the IDF.
“The current quiet is a lie,” a security source stated this week when asked about ongoing efforts by Hamas to target Israeli cities.
“It would be sufficient for one attack, like the one that was forming in Nablus, to succeed, and things would look very differently,” he said.
On December 26, a Shin Bet investigation uncovered a large Hamas cell preparing to launch suicide bombings in Haifa and Jerusalem.
“Israeli soldiers arrest a man during a raid in Surif, north of the West Bank city of Hebron to search for a Hamas militant accused of murdering an Israeli rabbi”
Security forces arrested the cell’s members, preventing scenes of carnage on Israeli streets. Most of the suspects had already served time for past security offenses and it remains unclear whether this cell was acting under orders from Gaza.
During questioning, the suspects revealed that between May and August 2016, they set up a bomb-making lab in Nablul, producing seven kilograms of TATP-type explosive.
This material was then used to put together bombs intended for use by suicide attackers, and for explosive devices that the cell planned to plant.
Four would-be suicide bombers were recruited to the cell, and were preparing to take explosives into crowded areas in Jerusalem and Haifa.
The cell’s members led Shin Bet investigators to the location of the bombs. Oxygen tanks and ball bearings designed to increase the blast impact were also uncovered.
The suspects also purchased M-16 assault rifles, which were seized by security forces.
The cell was supported by a broad network of people who aided and abetted it through the manufacture of explosives, purchasing and hiding of weapons, transferring funds to support the cell’s activities, and sheltering the suspects.
A senior Shin Bet source described the cell as being “hierarchical and organized,” adding that it would have launched “severe attacks had it not been stopped ahead of time.
“The site of the terror attack in which two Palestinian gunmen killed four patrons of the Sarona market in Tel Aviv a day earlier, June 9 2016”
Only complex intelligence and operational work by the Shin Bet and IDF prevented these mass casualty incidents from materializing, the source said.
The cell was “highly prepared to launch murderous suicide bombings,” he added, stating that “this investigation exposed, once again, the many efforts made by the Hamas terror organization to set up cells in Judea and Samaria, with the intention of launching attacks against Israel.”
Just a few weeks earlier, the Shin Bet, together with the Israel Police, uncovered a terror cell made up of East Jerusalem residents, who plotted to conduct a series of shooting attacks in the capital.
The suspects, from the neighborhoods of Tzur Baher and Sheikh Jarah, included Hamas members, who allegedly set up their network in 2015, while serving time in an Israeli prison for taking part in rioting.
The Shin Be said the investigation exposed the “great danger” posed by terrorists who hold Israeli identity cards, and enjoy freedom of movement around Israel, as well as access to firearms.
But the threat is not limited to Hamas. Iranian proxies, like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah have also sought to create armed cells, and these efforts were also detected and blocked in time.
Last year, the Shin Bet revealed it had thwarted an attempt by a Hezbollah terrorist cell, made up of six residents of the Alawite village of Khadr, on the border with Lebanon, to plant bombs in the Haifa area.
The list of thwarted attacks goes on and on, and grows with each week. Recently, ISIS-inspired cells have also been caught before they could kill.
And yet, there is no such thing as a 100 percent success rate.
In April last year, a Palestinian bomber blew up a bus in Jerusalem and injured 21 civilians. The bomber died of his injuries and Hamas claimed responsibility.
In June, two Palestinian gunmen went on a shooting rampage at the Sarona Market complex in Tel Aviv, murdering three civilians and causing a fourth to die of a heart attack.
Hamas said the gunmen, who were captured by security forces, were its members and praised their actions.
The coming year shows no sign that terrorist factions will decrease their efforts and the Israeli intelligence community will have to remain ever vigilant and active if the hustle and bustle of ordinary life in Israel is to continue.
Yaakov Lappin is a military and strategic affairs correspondent. He also conducts research and analysis for defense think tanks, and is the Israel correspondent for IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly.