Analysis Hamas Uses Israeli Election Mayhem to Extract Concessions for Gaza

That campaign was a large and bloody Palestinian defeat. The pressure did not bring about concessions by Israel or a significant easing of the situation, and led to mounting frustration with Hamas in Gaza. This led Sinwar to halt these protests, but not to completely abandon the use of violent methods. It is possible that the calculated and limited use of violent means in recent weeks, such as launching explosive devices attached to balloons as well as the sporadic firing of rockets and mortar shells (usually by rogue factions), is what ultimately brought some gains for Hamas.

This would not have happened were Israel not in the midst of an election frenzy. Hamas identified the political distress beleaguering the Netanyahu government and continued exerting pressure until it obtained these alleviating measures this week. It’s possible that the prime minister is preparing an operational surprise for Hamas, as he hinted at last week, but judging by what’s happening on the ground, that organization is so far only reaping benefits from Israel.

On Wednesday morning, shortly after the new measures took effect, there was a shooting incident along the Gaza border, east of Khan Yunis. The Israel Defense Forces spokesman reported that Islamic Jihad sharpshooters had fired into Israel and were hit by returning Israeli sharpshooter fire. Reports from Gaza indicated that one civilian was hurt by Israeli fire, without mentioning the earlier shooting from Gaza.

asked Palestinians prepare to attach balloons to a gas canister before releasing it near Gaza’s Bureij refugee camp, along the Israel-Gaza border fence, February 10, 2020.AFP

The coming days will show whether Hamas is ready to completely desist from using violent methods in exchange for these benefits, or whether it is indicating with a wink and nod to smaller groups that launching balloons or rockets will be tolerated. As far as is known, Israel is not demanding that Hamas aggressively impose its authority over these factions and arrest their members or stop acts of terror committed by rogue networks in the West Bank.

In an optimistic scenario, the new measures should ensure quiet up to the election on March 2. After that, the two sides will have to work on a longer-term arrangement. The IDF, which has supported easing conditions in the Strip over the last few months, continues to express optimism regarding Gaza. We’ll soon know if this is warranted.