Tehran is attempting to retain its influence by experimenting with new methods of fighting. If it won’t use more force, Iran may lose its grip there
Zvi Bar’el
Dec 11, 2019 11:33 AM
The four Katyusha rockets that hit a military base next to Baghdad International Airport this week mark a new trend in the battle Iraq has been waging since early October.
The six soldiers injured in the attack belong to the elite forces of a U.S.-trained anti-terror unit. Inside the base, American forces and diplomats live next to Iraqi forces.
It was the ninth attack in the past six weeks against American facilities within Baghdad’s Green Zone, where government offices and U.S. command headquarters are located. No organization claimed responsibility, but the American administration attributes them to pro-Iranian forces.
Similarly to the first decade of the second Gulf war, the American enemy is close to home and can be confronted with minimal power. In those days, whoever wanted to hurt the Americans did it through terror attacks and roadside bombs. These days, a new trend is evolving: Attacks via rockets and mortars. The American ability to respond to these attacks is limited. Should Washington decide to launch a violent confrontation on Iraqi soil against pro-Iranian forces, Baghdad might demand that the Americans leave its territory. The White House is concerned that in such a case a public protest will be sparked and potentially inspire the Iraqi government to cancel its defense pacts with the U.S. administration.
Iraqi protester in a Money Heist outfit stands behind a Shiite Muslim cleric during an anti-government demonstration, Basra, November 29, 2019
Iraqi protester in a Money Heist outfit stands behind a Shiite Muslim cleric during an anti-government demonstration, Basra, November 29, 2019AFP
Simultaneously, The New York Times quoted U.S. intelligence sources which said that Iran deployed short-range ballistic missiles in Iraq that could hit neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel. This may not be the first time that Iran has deployed ballistic missiles in Iraq, but it seems that this time Iran is taking advantage of the unrest that has gripped the country for the past two months to bolster its forces and respond to an addition of 14,000 American fighters in the Gulf region.
However, Iran’s ability to expand its military presence in Iraq has faced a public outcry that has led to the deaths of more than 450 people and thousands of injuries. The calls to kick Iran out of Iraqi territory, the temporary closure of the border crossings in southern Iraq, the two incidents of torching of the Iranian consulate in Najaf and the violent confrontations between demonstrators and pro-Iranian Shi’ite militias are only part of the expressions of rage against Iran. Sizeable Iraqi tribes who had previously backed Iran have recently joined the protests. As recently as July, a large delegation of tribal leaders met with the Iranian ambassador in Iraq to express their unqualified support for Iran.
“We are prepared to defend the Islamic Republic because a war against Iran is a war against Iraq,” they declared. “Iran proved that it stands beside the oppressed nations of the world and especially beside the Palestinian people.”
Content retrieved from: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/iran-s-iraq-dilemma-use-more-force-or-lose-influence-1.8256319.