Did Iran order a drone attack on the US in Iraq?

What do we know about the attack on Erbil. It is the third attack on US-led Coalition forces in the city. Pro-Iran militias in Iraq, led by Kataib Hezbollah, shifted tactics after 2019 and 2020 when US forces consolidated their facilities in Iraq, withdrawing from a series of smaller bases such as Q-West, K-1, Nineveh and even Tamp Taji. This left less targets for Iran’s militias in Iraq. At the same time those militias, called PMU which also have political wings in the government and receive government salaries, have been forced to use aliases now.

There was an attack on Erbil in late September 2020 and another in February this year. The February 15 attack was likely a message to the US and the new Biden administration. Iran and its allies in Iraq want the US to leave. The first attack on Erbil in 2020 had followed dozens of other attacks. A US contractor was killed in December 2019 in Kirkuk and several forces were killed in Camp Taji in March 2020. The rockets fired in 2020 at Erbil were 122mm Grad rockets and did little damage. However the March attack included rockets falling on numerous warehouses and harming civilians and contractors.

The drone attack is more mysterious. Not many details are known. The US-led Coalition spokesperson has not released new details. “A drone packed with TNT targeted a coalition base at Erbil airport,” the Kurdish region’s interior ministry said in a statement. A pro-Iranian group calling itself Awliyaa al-Dam (Guardians of Blood), applauded the strike on the messaging app Telegram. Iraqi politicians pointed fingers at the pro-Iran militias and at “terrorists.” Many leading Iraqi politicians are afraid of the Iranian backed groups which have threatened the President and Prime Minister in the past. The powerful Badr organization has tentacles in Nineveh plains near Erbil and its 30th brigade of the PMU, a Badr affiliate, has hosted rocket firing squads that not only targeted Erbil last year but also targeted a Turkish base the same night of the drone attack.

In addition on April 13, a day before the drone attack, a shadowing group told Sabereen news that it had targeted “Mossad” in northern Iraq.

While many noted that the drone attack is likely linked to Iran, others also commented on how it is an escalation. “Suicide drones are particularly useful in these types of hits as they can avoid counter rocket, artillery and mortar systems such as C-RAM,” the system deployed by the Americans to protect their troops in Arbil and Baghdad, Hamdi Malik, associate fellow at the Washington Institute, told AFP. The AFP report includes other important details. Not only is this the first drone attack on US forces in Iraq, “this method is tried and tested for Iran-aligned groups in the region.” The article alleges this is an Iranian-made drone with a 15-foot wingspan similar to the ones used by the Houthis. These are known as Qasef-style drones.

The US senior defense official who spoke to AFP linked this to a January attack on the royal palace in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh, allegedly carried out from Iraq.  “We know the attack was launched… out of southern Iraq,” added the US official, speaking on condition of anonymity. That gives these drones a range of some 1,500km. They use GPS as a guide and are pre-programmed. “They can even be loaded onto a ship from Basra” the report notes. In January another report indicated Iran may have supplied the Houthis with a drone that has a 2,000km range and can reach Israel.

What we know about the attack on Erbil with a drone now adds to growing evidence of Iran sending drones to Iraq and using them against Saudi Arabia and now US forces. For instance in May 2019 it was believed attacks on Saudi Arabia were planned by Iran using Iraqi soil. In February AP noted “explosive-laden drones that targeted Saudi Arabia’s royal palace in the kingdom’s capital last month were launched from inside Iraq, a senior Iran-backed militia official in Baghdad and a U.S. official said.” The US is clearly building a case against Iran for these attacks. But the US already had a lot of evidence of Iran’s role in drone attacks. At the so-called “petting zoo” at the Iran Materials Display at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling, there were examples of Iranian drones. Details compiled by Conflict Armament Research already linked Iran via gyroscopes to drones used across the Middle East. Kurdish authorities have also investigated the February attacks that used rockets. But despite all the investigations little is

done against the Iranian groups because everyone fears them. The US fears escalation, for instance.

The claim that drones can get around C-RAM pose another threat to US forces. The US sent Patriot air defense to Iraq in 2020 after the rocket attacks increased. C-RAM, a statistical weapon that fires massive numbers of rounds at an incoming munition, is also in Iraq to defend US bases. But these outdated air defense technologies have difficulty against drones and cruise missiles and even rockets. Israel’s Iron Dome works much better against these new threats, but while the US has two Iron Dome batteries there is no evidence it will deploy them to Iraq.