The United States and Europe cannot be complacent about the risk of conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean. Alongside the dangerous situation in the South China Sea, the deepening confrontation in the Aegean and in the waters off Cyprus, Crete, and Libya is arguably the most serious and immediate security flashpoint facing transatlantic partners today. The crisis poses key tests for NATO and the European Union. On the face of it, the crisis has been driven by maritime demarcation disputes affecting offshore energy exploration and transport. These differences are longstanding and could be amenable to legal and diplomatic solutions. However, current brinkmanship is not really about energy per se, and it is being shaped by wider strategic developments.
Greek-Turkish relations are at the core. The détente that has prevailed between Athens and Ankara since the late 1990s is on the verge of collapse. This would have profound implications for regional stability and NATO’s ability to function in the face of pressing security demand emanating from the Levant, North Africa, and around the Mediterranean. Even if the immediate threat of conflict can be contained, the alliance could be faced with a return to the tense conditions that prevailed for decades and impeded NATO solidarity and operations.
There have been profound changes on both sides. Turkey has lost its inhibitions regarding power projection. It has become a more independent and assertive actor, encouraged by operational successes in Syria and Libya. The country has also rediscovered its maritime interests and strategy. And at a time of over-heated nationalism, Cyprus and sovereignty concerns in the Aegean and beyond are nationalist issues par excellence across the political spectrum. Ankara has few supporters for its assertive posture in Europe or among NATO allies, who are already deeply troubled by President Erdogan’s rhetoric and authoritarianism, the S-400 deal with Russia, and Ankara’s policy in Syria and Libya.
Greece, for its part, has never been closer to its transatlantic partners. Differences over finances aside, Athens is now fully in the European mainstream on key policy questions. Greek-American security cooperation has expanded significantly over the last decade, spanning changes of administration in Athens and Washington. Support from transatlantic allies and regional actors such Egypt and the UAE has encouraged a tougher stance in Athens where maritime sovereignty issues are central to the national narrative.
Both Greece and Turkey would have much to lose from an actual conflict—a reality acknowledged by all sides. It is enough to note that the tourist economy dwarfs the energy stakes on both sides of the Aegean. The coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis affecting both countries underscore this reality. A Greek-Turkish clash would impose tremendous costs and would likely result in Turkey’s open-ended estrangement from Western partners. It would pose huge challenges for NATO cohesion and operations. Moscow might be the only beneficiary.
Greece and Turkey are at the center of this maelstrom. But unlike past periods of regional brinkmanship, many more actors are engaged politically and militarily this time. The United States, Russia, France, Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, Italy, and the UAE are among the countries conducting naval and air operations in the Eastern Mediterranean. The potential for accidents, misjudgment, and escalation has increased substantially. Recent incidents between French and Turkish ships and a glancing collision between Greek and Turkish frigates in mid-August illustrate the risk. Things can and do go wrong—and can easily get out of control.
Who will intervene to forestall these risks? Washington played a critical role in defusing the Imia/Kardak crisis between Greece and Turkey in 1996. It is unclear whether Washington has the willingness or credibility with all sides to play this role today. Perhaps, but the protagonists are uncertain. This could be a key test for an EU that aspires to a greater geopolitical role. Does Brussels have the agility and credibility in Ankara to act? It is understandably devoted to solidarity with a member of the European club. With a keen awareness of the consequences of alienating Ankara entirely, Berlin has been trying to broker a dialogue. NATO is a leading stakeholder in the outcome and has standing with all sides. The alliance cannot resolve the underlying disputes. But it could be the moment for a more political NATO to help put in place military-to-military talks and risk reduction measures before “the fire next time.”
– Ian Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund
Content retrieved from: https://www.gmfus.org/blog/2020/08/28/eastern-mediterranean-brinkmanship-clear-and-present-danger.
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