What follows is a list of some examples of countries that reports suggest may be in line to normalize relations.
Bahrain
Bahrain was long thought to be the first country in the Gulf that might normalize relations with Israel. The small kingdom has often made relatively positive comments about Israel over the years and appeared open to the Trump administration’s Deal of the Century by hosting discussions about the economic aspects of it. Bahrain welcomed the UAE deal with Israel and reports immediately indicated that the countries were working on normalizing relations after the UAE. December 2019 articles in the Gulf noted that Bahrain was reaching out to Israel.
In May Bahrain shut down a symposium aimed at supporting a boycott of Israel. In 2019 Jerusalem’s Chief Rabbi Shlomo Amar visited Bahrain and met King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa in Manama. In 2019 Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa also supported Israel’s right to defense against Iran’s threats. He said “Iran is the one who declared war on us.” The Kingdom made similar statements in 2018. Bahrainis also participated in a bike race in Israel in 2018. Israel’s then Foreign Minister Israel Katz also met his counterpart Khalid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa in Washington in 2019. Bahrain also reached out to the Simon Weisenthal Center in California and has a small Jewish community.
Bahrain’s hurdles not only include Iran’s threats to try to stir up protests among the Shi’ite minority, but also that the country faced protests in the 2011 Arab Spring. As such it appeared more wise for the UAE to move first regarding relations with Israel.
Oman
In October 2018 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a trip to Oman and met the Sultan Qaboos. Oman’s minister responsible for foreign affairs, Yusuf bin Alawi, made positive comments about accepting Israel in the region during subsequent discussions in Manama. In April the Omanis made similar comments in Jordan at a conference, saying it was important to assure Israel that it was not being threatened. While Jordan slammed the comments, Oman continued to push forward with relatively positive views on Israel.
Oman, like other Gulf states, had actually been open to discussions with Israel in the 1990s. Then Prime Minister Shimon Peres visited Oman in 1996. Much of this honeymoon period was changed by the Second Intifada when Israel saw a reduction in trade offices in the Gulf. Oman, like Qatar, once had an Israeli trade office. It was closed in October 2000. Nevertheless in the wake of Netanyahu’s 2018 visit there was increased talk if more ministerial visits across the Gulf. Oman however also hosts visits by top Iranian delegations and attempts to be neutral in other Gulf disputes, such as with Iran and the Qatar dispute.
Morocco
Morocco is reported to be one of the states on the short list of opening relations with Israel in the near-term. There is a Jewish community in Morocco and the country has made some gestures in recent years that show warming people-to-people relations despite diplomatic ties being stagnated. Israelis were recently brought back to Israel during the Covid crisis in May from Morocco. Cultural events in Morocco have shown more tolerance for Jews and Israel in recent years, despite pro-Palestinian activists being against them. Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote over the weekend that Morocco, Oman and Bahrain were the next countries that could normalize ties.
Morocco has been supportive of the Trump administration’s efforts on peace issues. In February there were even rumors at Axios about Israel and the US recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over the West Sahara.
Israel-Morocco ties go back to the 1960s. King Hassan II played a key role in these warming relations, including working with Egypt’s Anwar Sadat before the historic 1977 visit. Shimon Peres visited Morocco in 1986 and Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Foreign Minister Shimon Peres met Hassan II in 1993. The Intifada in 2000 harmed relations and they have been slow to return since. Nevertheless since 2003 there have been positive gestures, including the visit Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom in that year.
In 2019 a meeting between Morocco’s King Mohammed VI and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo didn’t happen at the last moment. That meeting was rumored to have included Netanyahu, according to Morocco World News and Israel’s Channel 12. Netanyahu had met Pompeo in Lisbon and the report said he could have travelled on to Rabat with Pompeo but Morocco cancelled the meeting. This may have been due to controversy over whether it would have been seen as a political issue supporting Netanyahu’s election campaign. Either way, the central issue is that this has been something that the US has been keen on for years.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has appeared to be more open to Israel in recent years. That has come about as a result of several processes. Saudi Arabia is threatened by Iran and fighting Iranian-backed forces in Yemen. Riyadh also opposes the Muslim Brotherhood and has broken relations with Qatar. The Brotherhood is not only linked to the ruling party in Turkey but also Hamas. Saudi Arabia has tried to clamp down on the kind of extremism that roiled the kingdom in the 1990s and in the last decade has appeared to share more interests with Israel.
However Saudi Arabia has preferred to let other Gulf states that it works closely with go first in discussions with Israel. This includes Oman, the UAE and Bahrain. Nevertheless Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has sought close relations with the Trump administration and also made relatively positive comments on issues relating to the peace process in Israel. This is a shift from the old days when the Palestinian issue was seen as front-and-center of everything in the Middle East.
Riyadh was a leader of the Arab initiative to recognize Israel in the 2000s in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank. This was proposed in 2002 and Riyadh has thus shown support for opening relations with Israel in this context. Saudi Arabia doesn’t want Turkey to try to take over the mantle of supporter for the Palestinians and displace Saudi influence. However that is a main concern in places like Jordan, namely that Turkey is pushing influence in Jerusalem. To stop that Riyadh would like to work with Jordan and the Gulf and see shared interests across the region. Towards that end Riyadh has also hosted Evangelical delegations and Arab News, a media outlet, has published Ron Lauder, President of the World Jewish Congress. This is part of regional outreach to Jewish voices in the US, as well as rabbis who visited the UAE and the Gulf, and a burgeoning Jewish community in the UAE. Riyadh is the more conservative off the Gulf group however, recalling sensitivity in the 1990s over issues of having non-Muslims in the Kingdom. Today Riyadh is pursuing Vision 2030 to modernize the Kingdom.
Recent news has indicated that key members of the Trump administration, such as Jared Kushner, think normalization is inevitable with Royadh. An Israeli blogger reportedly received a friendly reception in Saudi Arabia in February and Israelis can ostensibly travel to Riyadh according to Israel. Saudis themselves have been more open on social media in support of relations with Israel. Some media, perhaps seeking to sabotage these positive signs, have tried to claim Riyadh is in “secret talks” with Israel.
Qatar
Qatar and Israel had historically warm relations in the 1990s and it was thought years ago to be the first in line for normalization. This happened after the Gulf War in 1991 and there was an Israeli trade office since 1996. Qatar, Israel and the US formed a kind of triangular relationship in light of this.
Qatar sought to play an increasing role throughout the Middle East and as part of this wider role it also wanted to play a role in peace discussions with Israel. Back in 2007 Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni met Qatar Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani in New York. Qatar tried to cultivate pro-Israel supporters after a crisis developed between it and Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2017. Working through lobbyists it invited a long list of pro-Israel voices to Doha. It appeared that both Qatar and the UAE were working at the time to cultivate closer ties to the Trump administration and Doha thought that Jewish insiders were key to this.
Qatar also tried to play an increasing role in discussions with Israel and Hamas. It provided cash for Gaza and kept Hamas afloat, part of a long-running attempt to be the paymaster for the Muslim Brotherhood across the region and to prop up Gaza. The young Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani is key to the Qatar relationships across the region. He came to power in 2013. Qatar had helped fuel the Arab spring and used Al-Jazeera to fan protests across the region to gain influence. However it saw many of these protests fail and saw regimes defeat Qatar-backed candidates. More isolated now, Qatar has Turkish troops in Doha after the 2017 crisis with Riyadh. That means it must rely on Turkey which is the most hostile regime in the region to Israel, except Iran. Qatar is also close to Iran. This means whatever feelers Qatar once had for peace, and even attempts to cultivate pro-Israel voices through junkets to Doha, is largely on ice. Nevertheless Qatar does have discussions with Israel about Gaza where it plays a key role. Some Israelis see Qatar as playing a potential positive influence. Former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman revealed a trip by the head of Mossad to Qatar in February 2020. In 2018 Liberman met the Qatari foreign minister.
Qatar’s emir once made a historic trip to Gaza in 2012. That seems like a bygone era now. However it is possible that Qatar, thinking it could solve the Gulf crisis and get something from the Trump administration, would talk normalizing relations. With Turkish troops in Qatar and Iran able to destabilize the Emirate if it sees betrayal from Doha, this would not likely be seen as a wise move. Instead Qatar prefers to be more open to hosting Israeli athletes or other moderate stances, making itself a center of meetings and intrigue rather than a peace partner.
What about Tunisia, Algeria, Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Libya and the rest
Israel lacks relations with other countries in the region, from Tunisia to Pakistan. Netanyahu met Sudan’s new leader in February. Sudan is now closer to Saudi Arabia and also Egypt and cold consider more discussions with Israel. Turkey had been trying to move into Sudan via an island base it wanted to lease. Now Sudan is closer to countries that are closer to Israel.
Tunisia was once one of the moderate states that could be foreseen as making a deal with Israel. However Tunisia today has several internal crises and a conflict in Libya next door. Turkey is also competing for hearts and minds in Tunisia via a party that is linked to the Brotherhood. While there is a Jewish community in Tunisia and also more liberal elements, leaders in Tunisia have called relations with Tunisia “treason.” Tunisia played a historic role hosting Palestinians since the 1980s and this is a hurdle as well.
Algeria seems like a country that is far from any normalization with Israel. It even jailed a blogger for an interview with Israel in 2019. Algeria has its own internal problems, such as protests last years and a historic Islamist insurgency that tore the country apart in the 1990s. It also has the background of the anti-colonial struggle which was framed as part of the same struggle as the Palestinians in the 1960s and 1970.
Lebanon could be a peace partner if not for Hezbollah. Hezbollah has only gotten stronger in recent years, holding the country hostage to Iran’s threats to Israel. Syria also has more Iranian influence today and has given up discussions it once held in the 1990s and early 2000s with Israel. Libya is riven by civil war and despite rumors suggesting Israel is on the side of the Egyptian-backed Khalifa Haftar, the country has no way to normalize relations with Israel. Instead it forms part of the larger context of Israel, the UAE and Greece sharing views on the Mediterranean. Turkey is involved in supporting the government in Tripoli, while Egypt backs Haftar in Benghazi. Yemen is also in the midst of a civil war and the Iranian-backed Houthis have an official slogan saying “death to Israel, curse the Jews.” There will be no peace there.
Iraq has too much Iranian influence to normalize relations with Israel. Nevertheless it has historic moderate voices, especially in the Kurdistan region, that have been warmer towards Israel. The Kurdistan region today however is threatened by economic problems and Iran’s role in Baghdad and also having to balance challenges with a Turkish military campaign against the PKK.
Iran could make peace with Israel if the regime falls. Iran and Israel once had good relations prior to 1979. Similarly in Somalia there are chances Israel could reach out to the region of Somaliland which has declared itself independence since the 1990s. Further afield Israel faces hostility from Pakistan and Malaysia. Whereas Indonesia once seemed more moderate, it too has hostile elements in its political landscape.
Content retrieved from: https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/five-countries-that-could-be-next-to-make-peace-with-israel-638821?fbclid=IwAR0EmNS1gjYNcl2uPJxm5otpivHDnBmQuJ0zOrTuCiMbU6gu8-BHS3qX7zo.
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