Greece is bracing for four scenarios on Turkish moves in Mediterranean

Greece is bracing itself for moves by Turkey in the Mediterranean to back up a deal it signed with Libya’s internationally recognised government that sees Turkey and Libya as maritime neighbours, analyst Costis Papadiochos wrote for the Greek newspaper Kathimerini.

Tensions have risen since Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.N.-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) on Nov. 27. Greece says the agreement ignores the territory around some of its biggest islands and is designed to frustrate plans it has with Cyprus, Egypt and Israel to pipe gas from the eastern Mediterranean to Europe.

Greece anticipates four possible Turkish moves, Papadiochos said.

As the most moderate option, Turkey might dispatch a research vessel to waters south of Crete, but to a region belonging to Libya, he said. The second option would involve Turkey sending a research vessel into Greek waters without naval escorts, he said.

Turkey could also send warships alongside research vessels as a third option and the last option would involve warships, as well as Turkish fighter jets in Greek air space, Papadiochos said.

“The risk of Turkish intervention in Greek waters is regarded as probable, however, more so than at any time since the two countries came close to war in the Imia crisis of 1996,” the analyst said, referring to a dispute over an uninhabited rocky outcrop in the Aegean Sea.