Hezbollah claims ‘first phase’ of its attack is complete – so what comes next? – analysis

Hezbollah says that these attacks will “take time,” implying that the large barrages of rockets early on Sunday morning are only one wave of attacks.

SETH J. FRANTZMAN

AUGUST 25, 2024 10:50Updated: AUGUST 25, 2024 11:02

 Protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, hold up posters of assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an Israeli strike, as they attend a rally to show solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen August 9, 2024. (photo credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)

Protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, hold up posters of assassinated Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an Israeli strike, as they attend a rally to show solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen August 9, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)Hezbollah claimed that it fired over 320 rockets and drones at Israel on Sunday morning, August 25. The attack was the “first phase” it had prepared in response to the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Shukr was killed on July 30 after a Hezbollah rocket killed twelve children and teenagers in Majdal Shams in northern Israel.

Hezbollah’s attack was widely expected and the group had warned of an attack for weeks. The warnings came as Iran also said it would retaliate for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. It was expected that Iran and Hezbollah might even coordinate attacks.

Due to the conflict, commercial airlines had cancelled flights to Israel in August, and Israel was put on alert. On Sunday morning the IDF struck and destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers, which may have prevented a wider Hezbollah attack.

Phase one is complete, what comes next?

It remains to be seen now what comes next. What’s worth trying to understand is what Hezbollah is saying about its own plans – today’s attack was only “phase one.” First of all, it’s worth noting that Hezbollah has already launched almost 8,000 rockets at Israel since it decided to support Hamas. It has also launched more than 200 drone attacks.

Hezbollah’s attacks targeted areas primarily in northern Israel. This means that they were largely confined to areas Hezbollah has already been targeting for ten months.

“The movement said the military positions that were targeted and damaged include bases of Miron, Navi Ziv, Zaatoun, Al-Sahel, Ein Zitim, and the bases of Nafah and Yarden, both located in the occupied Golan Heights,” Iranian state media IRNA said. Hezbollah claimed to target a number of IDF sites.

A black-and-white image shows a blast and smoke rising from what the Israeli military said was a strike at a location given as southern Lebanon, in this screen grab from a handout video released August 25, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

A black-and-white image shows a blast and smoke rising from what the Israeli military said was a strike at a location given as southern Lebanon, in this screen grab from a handout video released August 25, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Hezbollah now claims that it is ready for another round of escalation and that it will provide details on its claims regarding the early morning “phase one” attacks on Sunday, August 25.

“Hezbollah has also said it is at the highest level of preparation and will give a very severe response to any act of aggression by the Israeli regime, particularly if it harms civilians,” IRNA noted.

The statement by Hezbollah confirmed that “the Islamic Resistance fighters launched an air attack with a large number of drones [targeting areas deep inside Israel] towards a qualitative Israeli military target that will be announced later, and in conjunction with the Islamic Resistance fighters targeting a number of enemy sites and barracks and Iron Dome platforms in northern occupied Palestine with a large number of missiles.”

Hezbollah said that these attacks will “take time,” implying that the large barrages of rockets early on Sunday morning were only the first wave of attacks.

Hezbollah put out a list of eleven sites it had targeted. Many of these have been targeted in the past. For instance, Hezbollah claimed to target sites in Meron, Ein Zeitim, and also in the Golan. Hezbollah has shifted a lot of its attacks to target the Golan recently. For instance, it damaged buildings and wounded one person in Katzrin last week.

Additionally, the terror group said it targeted what it said was the “Kela barracks in the occupied Golan, Nafah base in the occupied Golan, Yarden base in the occupied Golan.”

Bringing Islamic faith into the attacks

Hezbollah put out two statements about the attacks. The statements were similar, but one of them mentioned that it was the “40th day after the martyrdom anniversary of the third Shia imam, Imam Hossein.” This is a period that is important for Shi’ite Muslims and it is called Arbaeen. Many Shi’ites take part in pilgrimages in places such as Iraq. Therefore the day has important significance for the community. It has importance for Iran and Hezbollah as a symbol.

Hezbollah is seeking to connect the timing of the attack to this holy period.

Content retrieved from: https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-816204.

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