Hezbollah threat to Israel hinges on US election: Oren

i24NEWS

October 26, 2020, 05:05 AM

The result of the upcoming US Presidential election on November 3 could conceivably determine Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese Shi’ite proxy’s threat level toward the State of Israel.

In an interview with The Media Line, Israel’s former ambassador to the US Michael Oren highlighted that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) should be factoring the possible responses and scenarios in the light of incumbent US President Donald Trump winning a second term or defeat to his challenger, Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden.

“Hezbollah takes its orders from Iran and Iran is waiting to see what happens with the election, because if Donald Trump wins, Iran can do one of two things. It can negotiate under Trump’s humiliating terms or it can pick a fight with Israel,” Oren said according to The Media Line.

The former ambassador noted that – as is its wont – if Iran does pick a fight it will not do so using either conventional Iranian forces or even the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – but almost certainly a proxy force – in this case, Hezbollah.

It is assessed to have in the region of 130,000 missiles, many of which are precision-guided, although hundreds of Israel Air Force (IAF) strikes have attempted, over several years, to target shipments of components, as well as the warehouses, thought to store them.

To make the IDF’s job much more difficult, the rockets have been secreted in and around and under up to 200 villages in southern Lebanon, which might require house-to-house searches and close quarter combat to neutralize.

Oren’s assessment comes as the IDF is carrying out one of its largest-ever drills. Dubbed “Lethal Arrow” it is simulating a war-like situation with Israel’s northern enemy. The regularly-scheduled annual general staff “Keystone” exercise in September was canceled due to the pandemic.

Despite the appearance of relative calm on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon since the two countries fought a 34-day war in 2006, tensions are increasing both here and on the north-eastern border with Syria.

Hezbollah has vowed revenge for the killing of an operative in Syria, while the recent White House-led push for normalization deals between Israel and the parts of the Arab world could also be a catalyst for the terrorist group’s retaliation.