The group is still threatening to conquer the Galilee even after the IDF destroyed its biggest asset. It does so for deterrence, and it has a plan involving thousands of commandos
Like a broken record, in every speech Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah delivers he threatens a military operation in Israeli territory if a war breaks out. Sometimes he called it “conquering the Galilee,” sometimes just “penetrating.” Last month that ritual repeated itself when Nasrallah told his supporters the terror group has the ability to “easily penetrate the Galilee.”
However, despite the brash words, the question now is whether after the Israeli military revealed and destroyed Hezbollah’s secret strategic weapon — the cross-border tunnels — the Lebanese organization has yet another surprise tactic that would give it the ability to operate inside Israeli territory and take control of a town or a piece of land.
With or without a secret strategic weapon, Hezbollah, even in post-tunnels, does have an extremely ambitious and detailed plan to occupy communities and military posts on Israel’s northern border.
It should be said that Hezbollah and Nasrallah have for years created the narrative of conquering the Galilee, based chiefly on the tunnels. Israel’s targeting of that infrastructure poses a problem for the terror group and its longtime leader, who would have to prove in the next war that they can deliver on their bellicose promises.
The question is how that could be done, when Hezbollah is clearly penetrable by Israeli intelligence. One option is to sidestep that issue entirely by creating sufficient deterrence to make Israel too wary to carry out strikes in Lebanon.
A key part of that plan is the group’s attempts to build precision missile factories. Nasrallah’s speeches are also part of the deterrence effort. He knows his every word is closely scrutinized, broadcast and echoed by analysts and experts; hence the arrogant phrases that he repeats every few days or weeks.
Apart from that, Hezbollah will clearly try to create a situation in the next war in which the Israel Defense Forces would have to deal not only with offensive plans, but also with protecting northern Israeli communities and the possibility of an attack within Israeli territory.
Let’s start with the tunnels themselves. It is difficult to say with 100 percent certainty that Hezbollah has no more tunnels. It is most likely that the entire array of offensive tunnels reaching into Israel was destroyed, but there is still a very small chance that something escaped the eyes of Israeli intelligence.
That project was meant to shock Israel, funneling hundreds of members of the terror group’s Radwan commando unit into the country to carry out various attacks.
“Radwan” was the alias of Imad Mughniya, the Hezbollah No. 2 who was assassinated by Israel in 2008. Members of that unit are given high priority in almost everything: budget, equipment, resources and logistics. Their activities resemble those of elite IDF units, such as combat soldiers trained to use ATVs or navy commando fighters supposed to sneak into Israel in small underwater vessels.
In the absence of tunnels, Radwan members will likely be tasked with covertly invading Israel and reaching one of the border communities or army posts, attempting to get thousands of fighters into Israel at once through several points on the border while bombarding the border region, hoping that will overwhelm the IDF and destroy army posts.
The group has a fully fledged plan aimed at demolishing the entire IDF front line upon command. Every post, every antenna. The grandiose plan purports to have the potential to deal the IDF such a severe blow that no Israeli force will be able to operate on the border.
Apart from the artillery meant to serve as cover for thousands of troops invading Israel, Hezbollah’s attack plan involves a whole logistic and intelligence apparatus that includes using drones that would transmit real-time intelligence and could carry out “suicide” bombings on Israeli targets. It also has a designated command center meant to direct the wide-ranging operation along the entire Israel-Lebanese border.
A land barrier built by Israel in recent years will make it difficult for such an operation to be carried out, but Hezbollah decision-makers nevertheless think that at least some of the attackers will manage to penetrate into Israeli territory. Some of the Radwan fighters will carry out killings and return to Lebanon, and others will likely have to entrench themselves inside Israeli territory, film what can be filmed for a PR achievement and then return or be killed in battle.
It is clear to the upper echelon in Hezbollah’s military wing that such an operation would have harsh consequences for its personnel, but they view the resulting psychological effect as critical. It would force the IDF to invest in defense, shock Israeli public opinion and create pressure to quickly end the fighting. We can only guess the sort of effect images of Hezbollah members in the northern Israeli town of Metulla could have.
Hezbollah’s highly ambitious war plan is exceptionally risky for the organization itself, and its leaders are aware of that. Sending or trying to send thousands of its best warriors across the border might ultimately prove a gamble too dangerous to attempt. It would, after all, present an excellent opportunity for the IDF to eliminate the elite fighting force of Hezbollah in a matter of hours. That, in turn, would expose Hezballah‘s home front to counterattacks and ease the IDF’s path to a clear victory in a future war.
Content retrieved from: https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollahs-secret-grandiose-plan-to-invade-israel-in-the-post-tunnel-era/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter.
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