There is a chance that the war in Ukraine and US focus on Ukraine could lead Iran to believe it can exploit this chaotic time to encourage its proxies to attack Israel.
Reports on Thursday morning showed Russian attacks across Ukraine, including against key airports and military sites. Air raid sirens were heard in western Ukraine and in Lviv where some countries – including Israel – have relocated their embassies. The message that Russia’s unprovoked attack has for the world is clear: Other countries can do the same.
In the Middle East, Iran understands that the Russian operation gives it a blank check to continue attacking countries throughout the region. This has repercussions potentially for Israel. Israel has always behaved as if it will have to face Iran alone, but the conflict in Ukraine is yet another message for the Middle East.
kraine-Russia War
* Russia attacks Ukraine, explosions sound across the country
* Israelis in Ukraine told to evacuate, Israeli diplomats to help
* Rabbis stay in Ukraine to support Jewish community
* Guterres to Putin: ‘In the name of humanity stop this war against Ukraine’
While Israel-Iran tensions have gone on for decades, the question is whether the Russian war in Ukraine will open a Pandora’s Box of similar invasions and wars.
There is a chance that the war in Ukraine and the US focus on Ukraine could lead Iran to believe it can exploit this chaotic time to encourage its proxies to attack Israel. Hezbollah has been threatening Israel and increasingly stockpiling missiles and drones. Iran could benefit from the Ukraine crisis through either getting a reduction in nuclear sanctions or empowering its proxies.
To understand Iran’s current posture is to understand that in many ways Iran’s attacks on countries in the region has foreshadowed Russia’s aggression. Iran has encouraged its proxies and allies in the region to attack countries such as the United Arab Emirates, as well as US forces in Iraq and Israel.
Iran openly moves drones and ballistic missiles across borders in the Middle East. This week, Israel alleged Iran was providing drone technology to Venezuela. Iran has armed the Houthis in Yemen and sent advisors to encourage their war against Saudi Arabia. In addition Iran has empowered Iraqi militias such as Kataib Hezbollah, which has carried out attacks against Saudi Arabia and the UAE alongside its militia partners in Iraq.
In Syria Iran backs the Syrian regime. It has moved proxies and terror groups into areas near the Golan. It has moved drone threats to Syria to strike at Israel. This resulted in attacks on Israel in February 2018 and May 2021 when drones entered Israeli airspace, as well as an incident in August 2019 when Israel struck a Hezbollah drone team near the Golan. In addition Iran constructed a base near Albukamal in Syria to facilitate the movement of weapons to Syria and Lebanon. In Lebanon Iran has helped Hezbollah stockpile masses of missiles. Iran also backs Hamas and Hamas has recently rolled out new drone and missile threats.
Overall the Iranian posture in the region is one that tests the new world order which shows that countries that are willing to carry out unprovoked attacks will not suffer consequences. For instance the US had labelled the Houthis in Yemen a terror group during the Trump administration.
The Biden administration, wanting to reverse Trump’s policies, dropped the terror designation. The Houthis immediately increased their attacks across the region. This shows that they felt they could attack whoever they want. They most recently carried out numerous attacks on the UAE. These were unprovoked. Yet there was no international response. Similarly Iran attacked Saudi Arabia in September 2019 and there was no response.
The remarkable ability of Iran to carry out attacks across an arc of 3,000 kilometers from Lebanon to the Gulf of Oman shows how the impunity of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, are part of a larger trend. For instance an Iranian drone attacked a ship in July of 2021, killing two crew members in the Gulf of Oman. There was no response. Iran mined six ships in May and June 2019 and there was no response. Iran has attacked the US garrison at Tanf in Syria. It has carried out drone attacks on US forces in Erbil in northern Iraq. The list goes on and on and on.
Iran will be watching the war that Russia is waging carefully to see how the world reacts. Iran knows it has enjoyed impunity for strikes across the region. But it wants to know if it can carry out larger attacks. As the Russian war on Ukraine unfolds there are also ongoing nuclear talks with Iran.
Iran wants those talks to be concluded in its favor. But Iran has indicated it doesn’t care that much about the timeline because it feels that history is on Iran’s side. Iran believes its friends in Moscow and Beijing are the future. Towards that end Iran will be pleased to see Russia’s actions because it opens the door for more Iranian attacks. While Iran pays lip service to wanting to work peacefully with the Gulf; sending its president to Qatar and talking to Oman; Iran also wants to be able to attack the US, Israel and others with impunity.
The chance that the Russian war on Ukraine could increase chances for an Israeli clash with Iran are clear. There are concerns about Hezbollah’s new provocations. Hezbollah recently launched a drone that flew into Israeli airspace and returned to Lebanon. Hezbollah then bragged about sending the drone. This was a clear provocation. Hezbollah was testing Israel and Hezbollah continues to improve its rockets and missiles and drones. In addition foreign media reported a missile strike near the Golan in Syria this week, apparently targeting a Hezbollah site. This is the context of tensions in the region.
Content retrieved from: https://www.jpost.com/international/article-698452.