Intensity of U.S. military visits shows urgency of Iran threat – analysis

In 2012, the Obama administration wanted to try and stop Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. As a result, and over a period of several months, every week or so, another top defense official would arrive in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv for meetings with the IDF top brass and the prime minister. At the time, US officials called it “Bibi Sitting.”

This came to mind on Sunday when US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley landed in Israel for just a few hours to meet with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi.

His visit came just a week after US Air Force commander Gen. David Goldfein was in Israel, and two weeks after the commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) Gen. Kenneth McKenzie was in town. In between, USAFE (United States Air Forces in Europe – Air Forces Africa) Commander Gen. Jeffery L. Harrigian was also here.

Last Wednesday, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett spoke on the phone with US Defense Secretary Mark Esper.

But Bennett, who took on the role of Defense Minister from Netanyahu last week, did not meet with Milley. He was on Israel’s northern border along with Netanyahu, Deputy Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Eyal Zamir and the Head of the Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Amir Baram sending a warning to Iran.

“Our message to those Iranian terror forces in Syria: You have nothing to look for here. You have nothing to try to establish. For everything you try to do here – you will encounter a strong, determined IDF that will hurt you. To Iran’s leaders, we say: Focus on your citizens, on improving their lives, and not on an unsuccessful attempt to harm Israeli citizens.”

McKenzie’s visit was particularly interesting. Israel is part of the US European Command (EUCOM) and his visit – one of just a handful by CENTCOM commanders over the years – shows a need for coordination amid growing threats in the region. Over the weekend, McKenzie warned that Iran was planning another large-scale attack in the Middle East, similar to the one it carried out against Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in September.

“My judgment is that it is very possible they will attack again,” he said in an interview with The New York Times.

Interestingly, Netanyahu quoted McKenzie during the cabinet meeting on Sunday and said that what the US general said was true and that Iran was planning not one attack but “additional attacks.”

So what is happening that is causing this parade of top US military officers to Israel? Seemingly, it is like McKenzie warned – Iran is up to something.

But not everyone agrees.

Brig.-Gen. (res.) Tzvika Haimovitch told The Jerusalem Post that such a slew of visits by such high-ranking officers occur regularly, and there is no need to link such visits to the heightened tensions in the region.

“It’s part of doing business between two strategic allies,” said Haimovitch, who retired from the military in 2018. “That’s how it was in the past, and how it will be in the future. I remember hosting the commanders of EUCOM and CENTCOM during my time as Commander of the Aerial Defense Division.”

“Every second man or military official is mentioning Iran but this fight didn’t start yesterday,” Haimovitch added. “We’ve been fighting against Iran for the last decade.”

And there have been many visits to Israel by high-ranking military officers in the past two years, many of them occurring with little fanfare.

For example, Israel was the first country that Dunford visited after he took over from Gen. Martin Dempsey in October 2015. During his tenure he came another three times.

And while McKenzie’s visit to Israel in early November was his first visit since becoming CENTCOM commander in March, his predecessor Gen. Joseph Votel visited Israel several times.

In March 2018, Gen. (res.) Curtis Scaparrotti, the former head of EUCOM and supreme allied commander in Europe, visited Israel for his second time, meeting with then IDF chief of staff Lt.-Gen. (res.) Gadi Eisenkot and other senior defense officials.

Milley took over from Gen. Joseph Dunford as America’s top military officer in October, amid rising hostility with the Islamic Republic and uncertainty about America’s presence in the Middle East.

During his confirmation hearing in July, Milley said that while he didn’t think it was “realistic or feasible” to defuse the crisis with Iran through diplomacy, “I don’t think anyone is seriously considering” major attacks against Iran.

Israeli officials, including Kochavi and Netanyahu, have in recent months been warning about Iran’s growing boldness when it comes to attacking Israel and it could be that the US wants to ensure it is on the same page with Israel.

It might also, like in 2012, want to prevent Israel from unilaterally acting without first coordinating whatever it might do with the US. The Americans, for example, have tens of thousands of troops deployed throughout the Middle East – from Iraq to Afghanistan, and Qatar to Syria. They wouldn’t want Israel doing something that could jeopardize those forces without first knowing about it.