Iran has declared war on the US in Iraq through its proxies – analysis

Iran has done this before, using pro-Iranian groups in Iraq to wage an insurgency against the US after the US-led 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Daily rocket and drone attacks on the US in Iraq are no longer just the harassment that began in May 2019. The targeted attacks are increasing and they also involved more sophisticated drones than in the past. While there have been no American deaths from these attacks since the spring of 2020, nevertheless the overall picture is of a rising conflict in which Iran has declared war on the US in Iraq. The latest attack was on the US embassy in Baghdad on Thursday morning. This follows daily attacks against US forces in Erbil, Al-Asad base and targeting US forces in Syria since July 4.

Iran has done this before, using pro-Iranian groups in Iraq to wage an insurgency against the US after the US-led 2003 invasion of Iraq. In a twist of irony, the US had gone into Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein. Saddam was a vicious opponent of Iran, who also genocided Iraqis, targeting Kurds and Shi’ites. However, once he was gone the Iranians moved into Iraq using pro-Iran Shi’ite groups, such as the Badr Organization. They then mobilized proxies to attack the US. This resulted in hundreds of US soldiers killed. However, the US did not retaliate, preferring the illusion that these were some kind of indigenous attacks.

Iran aided its pro-Iranian militias in Iraq with weapons, including 107mm rockets and also explosively-formed penetrators (EFPs). Reports say that the EFPs killed at least 196 US troops. That appeared to end in 2011 when the US left Iraq. The US returned in 2014 to fight ISIS and for a while the US was not targeted. However, in 2017 the pro-Iran militias, led by Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq and others, said that the US should leave Iraq. The US did not leave, since it had been invited by the Iraqi government.

The official line of the US-led Coalition is that the attacks against the US in Iraq are endangering Iraqis. This is true. Some Iraqis have been injured and even killed. “Each attack against the Government of Iraq, Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the Coalition undermines the authority of Iraqi institutions, the rule of law and Iraqi National sovereignty. These attacks endanger the lives of Iraqi civilians, and the partner forces from the Iraqi Security Forces, Peshmerga and Coalition,” tweeted US-led Coalition spokesperson Col. Wayne Marotto on Thursday.

However, the larger context is that this is not just harming Iraqis. This is a concerted and coordinated campaign against the US. It is not a simple campaign either. The use of drones in attacks is part of a new strategy. The strategy appears so far designed not to inflict many casualties on the US. In fact the barrages of rockets have been relatively small, sometimes up to a dozen rockets, but usually just a few. A drone struck a CIA hangar in April in Erbil, appearing to send a message that Iran knows where America’s secrets are hidden. In addition drones targeted an area where the new US consulate is being built near Erbil in the Kurdistan region. The message is that the US is not safe in Kurdistan, a peaceful and usually safe area.

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Iran’s use of drones and rockets, provided to the militias in Iraq, is unprecedented in its use of them against diplomatic sites and also against the US military. While Iran has supplied rockets and drones to Hamas and Hezbollah, here in Iraq the role of the IRGC and Iran’s guidance appears more closely linked to Tehran. This is because it is clear the attacks can be dialed up when Iran wants to. This time the increase began with July 4. This was a message and it coincides with the US leaving Bagram base in Afghanistan. Iran thinks it can push the US out of Iraq at the same time.