The calculation by the Lebanese side may be that a US administration seeking to re-enter the Iran deal will be more favorable to Lebanon in discussions.
SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Iran’s Tasnim News, relying on reports in Western media, championed the Lebanese attempt to frustrate US-backed talks on delimiting the maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon. The article said that Lebanon sought to prevent the Trump administration from having yet another foreign policy success regarding Israel, and preferred to complete the discussions under a Biden administration.
The calculation by the Lebanese side, led by the pro-Hezbollah president Michel Aoun, may be that a US administration seeking to re-enter the Iran deal will be more favorable to Lebanon in the discussions. In the past, the US has appeared to go soft on Hezbollah’s activities in response to attempting to get a deal with Iran, because the Islamic Republic backs the terrorist group and has sought to keep the US from isolating it.
Tasnim News, however, acknowledged foreign media reports about the degree of Iranian control in Lebanon through Hezbollah. “The sources claimed that Lebanon is currently controlled by an armed party that runs the country with a non-Lebanese agenda,” the Iranian pro-regime media said.
“US sources note that it was clear from the outset that the Lebanese negotiating team would never give a gift to the Trump administration, which is leaving the White House, and would prefer to present it to the new US administration led by Joe Biden.”
The overall issue is that mapping an agreed-upon maritime boundary would aid gas exploration. Israel recently took delivery of a new Sa’ar class corvette ship designed to defend the Exclusive Economic Zone off its coast. Hezbollah has pressured Lebanon not to cut a deal with Israel, a deal that would benefit both countries and increase foreign investment in secure off-shore rights. Lebanon is in a financial crisis and needs tens of billions of dollars in cash as a bailout.
Hezbollah holds Lebanon hostage, using the country as a base for missiles and threats to Israel. Hezbollah’s leadership has recently indicated that the country should not rely on the West, including the US or France, and should instead shift toward China. This is part of an Iranian-backed shift in the region, including among Tehran’s allies in Iraq. However, Beijing wants stability in the region and would prefer economic success as opposed to the rotting failure caused by Hezbollah’s economic stranglehold.
The calculations on the maritime discussions illustrate the worldview of Iran that takes into account changes in the US administration. This is a regime that is carefully calculating throughout the region what moves to do next.
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