Iran now knows its attacks on Saudi could bring Israel’s support – analysis

The support that Prime Minister Naftali Bennett gave Saudi Arabia in the wake of attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis is a signal to Iran. It is a signal Iran has also picked up on. Media reports at Iran’s Fars News noted that Israel is paying attention to the Houthi attacks. Iran puts on a brave face here, claiming that the “Zionists acknowledge” the power of the Houthis.

The fact that Iran can mobilize the Houthis against Israel has been known for several years.

In January 2020 for instance, reports emerged that Iran had staged drones in Yemen that had a range that could put Israel in danger. Moreover, there have been increasing comments from the Houthis threatening Israel. The Houthis’ official slogan is death to Israel and “curse the Jews.” But that is rhetoric, and actual Houthi threats have emerged more recently.

The Houthis’ threats are backed up by their capabilities, including their long-range missiles and drones. Last year a drone was used by Iran to attack a ship in the Gulf of Oman. Overall the idea of Iran is to put in place a threat against shipping off the coast of Yemen and Oman. Iranian media spreads conspiracies about Israel’s interest in Yemen and about Israel-UAE ties.

The overall picture then is that Iran knows that there is an Israel angle to its role in Yemen. It now openly acknowledges this but tries to make it seem like Israel is afraid of the Houthis. Al-Arabiya in Saudi Arabia noted over the weekend the comments by Bennett. “The State of Israel expresses its sorrow to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia after the horrific attack by the Iranian-backed Huthis,” Bennett wrote on Twitter.

Smoke billows from a Saudi Aramco’s petroleum storage facility after an attack in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia March 26, 2022. (credit: STRINGER/ REUTERS)

Iran believes it can operationalize the Houthis as a regional threat. Iran has paid close attention to comments on Israel’s Channel 12 that note that as the threat from the Houthis increase, the cooperation of the Gulf with Israel will increase.

“The two Gulf states are currently seeking a response to these threats,” Fars News says. This indicates that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seeking responses. This comes after widespread Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia targeting Jeddah and other areas. These attacks even threatened the Formula 1 race held in Saudi Arabia this week. Other factors exist. The Houthis have targeted the UAE as well. In addition, the US has been showing Riyadh the cold shoulder in recent months. However, at the same time the Negev Summit, with the UAE, Morocco, Egypt, Israel and Bahrain, as well as the US, is a symbol of the unified front between the Abraham Accords states.

The overall context now includes Iran’s understanding that its increased attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE could not only move those countries closer together regarding Yemen but also draw Riyadh closer to Israel. This overall process has been on display since 2015, but the public meeting in the Negev is a symbol of a new era. Saudi Arabia is weighing this new era. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi had some differences over Yemen over the last two years. But the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE in recent months illustrate Iran’s increased use of the Houthis to attack others.

Iran also knows that the US Iran envoy Rob Malley has said in Doha that a deal with Iran may not actually happen. While he is not confident a new deal will actually happen, he also said in Doha that the US would maintain sanctions on the Iranian IRGC. Iran now understands that without a deal that its need to pretend that it isn’t destabilizing the region can be reduced. In short, it can now lift the veil on more attacks; beyond the recent attacks on Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and the attack on Erbil recently in Iraq.