Iran offers Arab states ‘mafia deal’ of security or punishment after Trump

Iran has also sought to outreach to its Arab neighbors, with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warning them that Trump will be leaving in seventy days but that Iran’s regime will remain “forever.” He urged them to realize that “betting on outsiders to provide security is never a good gamble.” In Arabic and English he called for dialogue and to work together. The message was clearly aimed at Gulf states and others that are partnered with the US. Iran was offering them an opening, a massage: Shift and join us or suffer in the future, the US will not protect you. This is a kind of carrot and stick approach, a mafia don offering security.

— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) November 8, 2020
Foreign Minister spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh gave a long speech quoted at Fars News. He urged Iran’s neighbors to return to talks with Iran. “The Trump administration has gone in a very wrong direction over the past few years and the maximum pressure has reached the maximum failure. After the martyrdom of [IRGC Quds Force] General [Qasem] Soleimani, Iran resorted to the necessary reactions. Only the language of peace and respect responds to the dignity and civilized people of Iran. It is still time to step back from our failed policies and the inhumane legacy of the United States and the charlatans and bankrupt people who are advising the current US administration, and we are looking closely at the actions and careers of the future US administration,” he said.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry continued, noting, “we have to rely solely on ourselves, and the only solutions are indigenous, and let the logical path of decision-making move forward, and the most dangerous thing is to look at foreign policy from the outside,” he said.

When Trump leaves Iran is wondering about what might come next. “Iran has had a continuous policy, that is, the policy of good neighborliness,” but he echoed Zarif’s warning that those who went and asked for US security protections would find that “they cannot always pay and lobby and buy security and kill the Yemeni people.” This reference was about Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen since 2015.

“This is a clear message from Iran to them that we said seven years ago in this government and in previous years that still stands. We hope they reach the rationale that we need a local mechanism in the region. Iran is always ready,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said.  Here again Iran was promising Arab states a carrot and stick approach. If they obey Iran and work with Iran’s regime, then there will be security on Iran’s model, a “mechanism” from Tehran.

Zarif’s good cop approach clearly leaves the “bad cop” in the background. Last year Iran used drones and cruise missiles to attack Saudi Arabia, it has mined ships in the Gulf of Oman, sent proxies to attack US troops in Iraq, and fired rockets at the Kurdish regional capital of Erbil, attacked Kurdish dissidents in Koya, threatened tribes allied with the US in Deir Ezzor, and pushed Hezbollah to threaten Israel from the Golan.

Iran’s friends in Lebanon among Hezbollah and Badr parliament members in Iraq have all joined calls by the IRGC in Iraq to work closely with China. Iran is quite clear now then in messaging that it offers peace and security under its umbrella in the region. Those who don’t accept and bend the knee will face the wrath, appears to be the quiet message behind this entreaty to be nice to Tehran as Trump leaves.