Iran seeks oil strategy shift, sees Iran Deal as less important

JULY 10, 2021 16:50

Iran is seeking an energy strategy shift after focusing for too long on the West and Europe, according to an article at Fars News. The goal will now be to focus on the BRICS group of countries, namely Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa.

The article notes that China and India are two major industrial hubs of the world and are emerging as more powerful countries. Iran has a new 25 year deal with China. Iran’s oil experts estimate that the world will continue to rely on fossil fuels but that such dependency is declining in western countries.

“China’s share of world oil and gas consumption is now 26 percent, and by 2050 it will be 32 percent,” the article notes. “The share of renewable energy in China is now 5% and will reach 19% in 2050. China’s largest oil consumption is projected at 340 million tons per year and non-combustible consumption at 100 million tons per year.”

The article argues that Iran has large oil and gas resources. It needs to reposition itself to supply India and China. “The European Union and the United States, due to their large investments in solar energy, wind energy and increasing the production efficiency of energy from their nuclear power plants, and with high savings and technology upgrades, keep their fossil fuel consumption at the same level or slightly reduced,” the article notes. “They will not need Iranian oil and gas. So the main question is whether the direction of the previous governments in relation to the production and export of oil and gas to Europe and the United States and tying the country’s economy to the five-plus-one negotiations was correct or not?”

This relates to the Iran deal countries, and whether Iran was correct to waste time dealing with the West. The analysis at Fars says Iran made a mistake.

The analyst says that the focus of the Rouhani administration was strategically wrong. “They kept the country in limbo for 8 years in the form of Iran Deal negotiations, hoping that someone who does not need your oil and gas [will negotiate].” In a sense the article is saying that Iran doesn’t need to renegotiate an Iran deal. “It was a strategic and very harmful mistake that has caused a lot of losses and disadvantages for the country,” the article notes.

It asserts that Iran should focus on Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa. “Therefore, the direction and approach of the Ministry of Petroleum in this new government should be to cut off the hopes and expectations of the United States, Europe and OECD countries, and to put serious and strategic negotiations on the agenda with the BRICS countries, and us and Russia; ideologically like two trains that do not meet indefinitely, we can provide energy security in the 21st century in China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and some of the BRICS and our own countries.”

In essence the article argues Iran was plowing sand by hoping for western investment. It needlessly pushed China away for years with hopes of work with Europe. Now it understands that it must move forward with China, India and other countries. This is a shift in mentality for the foreign ministry and government heads. It also has ramifications for the Iran Deal negotiations with the US, because Iran is hinting it doesn’t even need to return to the deal.