SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Iran’s Tasnim news says that the fuse lit by Hamas will become a “fire” of a new operation in the future. The report, reflecting the Iranian regime thinking, details how Hamas won the recent war by not losing. Indeed, Iran helped push for this war, but was concerned Hamas and its other proxies in Gaza would lose badly. Instead they see surprising victory. The report says there are indicators to determine defeat or victory in war. Iran has weighed them and believes Hamas won. This matters because it means Iran and Hezbollah are not deterred in the next round against Israel.
Here is why.
Tasnim says we must begin at the starting point of the war to see the “achievements and failures that occur for each side during its days.” The “aggressor” must achieve military goals to have victory. “Otherwise, the side to which the war was imposed will win.” The report admits “a recent reading of the recent war in occupied Palestine suggests that Palestinian groups fired rockets at Jerusalem to provoke the conflict.” But it says “the Palestinian resistance’s rocket attack on Zionist positions in occupied Jerusalem came after widespread aggression and the crimes of settlers and Zionist militants against Palestinians living in Jerusalem and worshipers at Al-Aqsa Mosque. Even the resistance had set a deadline for the enemy before any military action to end the persecution of the Palestinians.”
What were the goals of both sides. “As mentioned, the Palestinian resistance groups entered the war with the aim of defending the people of Jerusalem and the holy places and preventing the completion of the project of Judaization of this city with the focus on the unity of all Palestinians.” Important here is the unity of Palestinians.
Iran thinks Israel’s goal was to “kill civilians in Gaza in the first place with the aim of pressuring the Palestinian resistance to surrender or grant concessions to the Israelis in any negotiations for a ceasefire, and secondly to destroy the command centers of the Palestinian resistance groups.” In fact we know Israel only sought the second aspect here.
Iran says Israel targeted rocket launchers and Hamas commanders. This is true, Israel hit some 650 rocket launchers and 25 commanders. Hamas commander Mohammed Deif survived. What was the performance of the “resistance in achieving its goals in the 12-day war?” Iran’s analysis is more interesting than that found in more western media and pro-Palestinian accounts. It says “first we must evaluate the goals of the Palestinians and the degree of success in achieving them and the performance of these groups in the days of war.”
Iran calls Israeli airstrikes hasty and lost Israel public opinion. But Hamas faced unprecedented precision attacks, the report notes. Tasnim claims that Hamas rockets also led to “unprecedented fear and terror that had taken root in the hearts of the Zionist settlers following the rocket attacks on Israeli cities and towns.” This is not accurate.
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The report says that Israel was “forced to resort to Arab and international mediators for a ceasefire by unofficially admitting their inability to continue the war…Despite the Zionist army’s boasting about a ground attack on Gaza, which turned out to be a major scandal for Israel in the media after it was revealed to be false, the Zionists did not dare to attack Gaza and relied only on their air force aggression.”
Iran now looks at the “striking achievement of the Palestinian resistance in this war was the unprecedented unity of all Palestinians throughout occupied Palestine and beyond. In the previous three Gaza wars in 2008, 2012 and 2014, the resistance entered the battle with the enemy solely for the purpose of defending Gaza and breaking the siege of the city, but this time it came out in support of the Palestinians living in Jerusalem.” This is important. It shows the regional and global context and thought and planning by Hamas. Hamas and Iran planned this war and did it over time. After the Palestinian Authority postponed elections on April 29. War planning went into high gear after that.
Iran’s media reads Israeli media and notes that it relies on Israeli media for facts. “Hamas has succeeded in thwarting the efforts of Mahmoud Abbas,” Tasnim quotes Israeli media. Fatah activists and Hamas clashed in Jerusalem on May 23 after a PA-affiliated Mufti was expelled from the Al-Aqsa mosque. “Since the lack of unity and division among the Palestinians is one of the biggest factors in the continuation of Zionist aggression and occupation in the Palestinian territories, the unity of the people of this land from Jerusalem to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and refugee camps in other countries can pave the way for their liberation,” says Tasnim.
The report says Hamas accepted the ceasefire without concessions. “The military blow inflicted on the positions of the resistance and its commanders in this war was much less than expected.” Hamas won by not losing so badly. “The fire will start and we will be exposed to another operation again,” the report says. Iran reads Avigdor Liberman criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to back up its theory.
Indeed, Iran and Hezbollah are now plotting. They know that Hamas, under blockade, performed well for 12 days. “They kept Israel under fire.” Next the report quotes Amos Yadlin and Ron Ben-Yishai. The point they are making is that Israelis have been critical of the recent conflict. “Israel’s defeat in the military, media, social, intelligence and economic dimensions of this war is also discussed in detail.”
Israel is the loser of this war because, “despite having abundant military capabilities that are not comparable to the Palestinians, could not prolong the war. They did not even dare to attack Gaza by land. Thus, he was eventually forced to accept the ceasefire unconditionally and at least save their positions in occupied Palestine from resistance missiles,” the report says.
The Palestinians achieve several things. First, “in this war, the Palestinians, unlike the previous three periods, targeted the entire occupied territories with their missile attacks.” It points to the continuous fire on Tel Aviv. Palestinians have “moved beyond a purely defensive position and, with a systematic strategy, focus on the enemy’s strategic goals, including economic infrastructure and critical positions.”
A total of 4,360 missiles and rockets were fired in 11 days. It notes that in the 51-day battle that took place in 2014, about 4,600 rockets were fired into Israel. It says that twice as many Israelis were killed this time. “In the early days of the war, the Palestinians unveiled several advanced missiles and drones.” These include a new “Qasim” missile and new drones, as well as the Ayash long-range rocket and the Badr-3 short range munition. Drones are a major milestone for Hamas and they are based on Iranian design. The report says that Hamas increased the accuracy of its missiles.
The big victory was bringing on board support from abroad and mobilizing protests across the world. It “put the Arab nations and all the free people of the world in a single position to defend the Palestinian nation and cause.” Now the report says “public opinion, and the countries that wanted to compromise with the enemy will retreat from this decision for at least a long time.”
That means the real victory may have been slowing down the process of normalization. Turkey and Iran are reaching out to Saudi Arabia to prevent normalization, for instance. “In general, the fourth war in Gaza, despite the material and human damage and pain it inflicted on the Palestinians, proved a fact: While the hopes of reviving the Palestinian cause have recently been dashed by the treacherous stances of the compromising regimes [i.e the Abraham Accords] and the Palestinian Authority, the realities of this war have shown that all Palestinians are ready to make any sacrifice to defend their cause and land and raise the flags of resistance in unison.”
This is important because it means Iran’s real goal was to sabotage Israel-Gulf ties and isolate the Palestinian Authority. Hamas may be more popular now than when it first came to power in Gaza. “Hamas will be a definite winner if elections are held,” the report notes.
