With Russia happy to see Assad bolstered and the US uninterested, Tehran is free to pump cash, troops and missiles into areas bordering Israel, which Jerusalem will not abide
Unless something changes, Israel is sprinting headlong into another violent confrontation along its northern border, this time against either Iranian troops or Iranian backed fighters with missiles made to order from Tehran.
The disappearance of the Islamic State from wide swaths of Syria, together with the superpowers’ lack of interest (or desire) in removing Syrian President Bashar Assad from power, are paving the way for an Iranian takeover of the territories until recently held by the jihadist group.
At the same time, massive numbers of Hezbollah troops loyal to Iran have entrenched themselves in southern Lebanon, whether in visible lookout points or “environmental protection” posts, according to Israeli military officials.
Israel won’t abide by this. The presence of Shi’ite forces on the border, be they Hezbollah or other Iran-backed militias, together with Iran’s efforts to bring in game-changing weapons, signal that the era of calm that Israel has enjoyed since the summer of 2006 is coming to an end.
On Saturday, Iran’s new defense minister said the country was prioritizing boosting the country’s missile program and export weapons to shore up neighboring allies.
“Wherever a country becomes weak, others become encouraged to raid it… Wherever necessary, we will export weapons to increase the security of the region and countries, to prevent wars,” General Amir Hatami said, without naming the countries.
Jerusalem has warned against Iranian efforts to set up missile production facilities in Lebanon, with Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman telling United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a meeting in Israel last week that Iran is “working to set up factories to manufacture accurate weapons within Lebanon itself.”
Liberman did not explicitly threaten to attack the Iranian missile factories in Lebanon, but he said that “the Lebanese government and the citizens of southern Lebanon should know” that Israel will be forceful in future conflicts.
The presence of at least two Iranian missile manufacturing facilities was revealed by Israel earlier this summer. On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Guterres that Iran was also involved in the construction of another missile base in Syria.
Yet no need to enter the bomb shelter yet. Despite media reports, by all accounts, Iran has not yet begun production at its missile plants — which will purportedly produce rockets that have a greater accuracy than Hezbollah’s current arsenal. However, it won’t be long. Contracts between Syria and Lebanon on one side and Iran on the other to establish the factories are nearly complete, as is a deal for Iran to build a seaport in Syria, giving it access to the Mediterranean.
The Russian model
Israeli officials say that Iran is trying to adopt the model Russia used in getting permission to put a seaport in Tartus, which was reached with the approval of both houses of parliament and is acceptable in any international court.
These contracts can be cancelled only with the agreement of both parties, not just one. The Iranians want to make sure that they, too, will have their Syrian seaport, which is why they are taking such meticulous care regarding the legalities.
Iran’s investment is more than just a seaport and a rocket-production plant. Tehran has also been pumping money and resources into various economic projects such as a cellular network and quarries.
Assad, knowing that this is the only way to ensure the survival of his Alawite dynasty, has given the set-up his blessing.
For now, the Iranian presence in Syria is actually limited officially to Revolutionary Guard advisers. But it cuts a wider swath once taking into account all the thousands of Shiites in Tehran’s pay who are deployed throughout Syria.
Hezbollah, the militia most loyal to Iran, has already placed one-third of its available combat troops in Syria on a permanent basis, and despite the severe losses that it has suffered there, it seems to have no plans to leave the country anytime soon.
In Lebanon, where the money is in the hands of large and well-known Sunni and Christian businessmen and families, the Iranians are less interested in investing in infrastructure and wish only to build a plant to produce precise rockets.
America the silent
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, whose government includes Hezbollah despite the fact that he blamed Syria for the assassination of his father, Rafik Hariri on February 14, 2005, is too weak to confront Hezbollah and its supporters.
Tehran is investing enormous resources in order to transform Syria into an Iranian province, while the United States and Russia have decided to disregard this region-altering drama.
The Russians are really the only ones who can make a difference. But they have no intention of doing so. The opposite is true: For them, the presence of thousands of Shi’ites will shore up Assad’s regime.
Last month’s meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi is not expected to change that calculus. Russia wants to see Assad bolstered, even if it means allowing Tehran to do the bolstering.
Washington, together with Netanyahu’s close ally, President Donald Trump, could have put pressure on Russia. But Trump, who is busy with his own affairs, has chosen to ignore what is happening in Syria — a dangerous thing to do.
On Thursday, the Asharq al-Awsat daily reported that the US conceded to Russia on several issues during talks in Amman over a cease-fire in southern Syria and the Golan Heights.
First, the Americans agreed that Russian inspectors would keep track of the implementation of the cease-fire, in essence letting the cat guard the cream and be the “judges” in conflicts between the pro-Assad/Iran forces and their opponents.
Second, the Americans agreed that Shiite (pro-Iranian) militias would have to stay 10 miles from the border with the Israeli Golan and Jordan, and not the 20 miles buffer Washington and Amman had initially sought.
According to the report, the buffer zone in some places will be only five miles.
If the report is true, once can’t help but feel that the Trump administration has turned its back on Israel’s security.
But it’s not only Trump who should be blamed. Iran’s massive investments are likely an outgrowth of increased financial stability thanks to the Iran nuclear deal, reached under Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama.
The Iranian army’s budget is now $23 billion and the Revolutionary Guards have seen an approximately 40 percent bump in their budget compared to last year.
Without sanctions relief, could Tehran have even dreamed of building a new Persian Empire, stretching from Yemen to Lebanon, via Iraq and Syria?
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