Opinion: The Islamic Republic has shifted from being an expansionist force on the move to a country on the defensive, having to protect its Mideast assets in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq and payback for alleged IDF attacks in the region is coming
Shimrit Meir |
Updated: 12.24.19 , 23:35
Another night brings another air raid against Iranian targets in Syria, which once again is attributed to Israel.
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These attacks have become almost routine and matter of fact.
Israeli raid in Syria
(Photo: EPA)
The stakes in the game played by Israel and Iran, however, have just gotten higher, despite the internal challenges both nations are currently facing.
Naftali Bennett, the ambitious new defense minister, has publicly toned down some of his fiery rhetoric. But behind closed doors, he is still making grand plans to make the Islamic Republic’s involvement in Syria as costly and uncomfortable as possible, in the hope the Iranians will decide to back off.
To that end, they must be made to feel more pain.
Attacks on weapons convoys are not enough. Their logistical bases must also be destroyed.
Targeting the Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias is also not enough. The human cost must include Iranian officers and troops.
Israeli attack on Iranian targets in Syria
(Photo: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
There is a quiet understanding between Israel and the United States when it comes to the division of labor in combating Iran: the U.S. is responsible for sanctions while Israel attacks the Iranian troops on the ground in Syria.
So far, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is doing its part. Iran’s economy has shrunk by 9% over the past year, oil revenues are expected to drop by 70% in 2020, Iranian unemployment is on the rise, and the Iranian rial is crashing.
The economic pressure on the Iranian regime has brought people out into the streets in numbers and intensity not seen since the 1979 revolution. These protests have met with unprecedented use of force by the government. The latest figures from various human rights groups suggest the number of protesters killed in the demonstrations has now reached some 1,500.
Anti-government protest in Iran
(Photo: AFP)
Weakness is easily detected in the Middle East and Iran’s troubles have piled up with protests breaking out in Lebanon and Iraq, both under heavy Iranian influence and both brought to a halt by the popular uprising.
The year of 2019 can be seen as the turning point, when the Islamic Republic has shifted from expanding its reach all over the region to a country on the defensive, trying to hold on to its Mideast assets.
They are fighting for their lives and their hold on power, using brutal force on the one hand, while attempting to instate amenable politicians in both Lebanon and Iraq, on the other.
But, success has so far evaded them.
The protests are popular, authentic and based on a captivating idea: a non-partisan society with people who want to be ordinary citizens rather than be divided as Sunni, Shi’ite or Christians.
Protesters in Beirut
(Photo: EPA)
People who dare hope to live in a functioning country with dependable electricity and garbage collection, where corruption is not an acceptable part of governing and elected public officials work for the public and not an Iranian or Saudi patron.
When it comes to Israel, the new defense minister’s policy of pushing Iran out of Syria by exacting a heavy price does not come without risk.
Israel’s score with Iran remains unsettled. The list of events that warrant Iranian revenge is growing and payday will likely come sooner or later.
Israel on its part must find the strength and ingenuity, despite the political stalemate that has plagued it for so long, to push Iran away from its borders because the alternative is the threat of missiles being fired from more directions.
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