Iran’s Zarif arrives in Iraq to pressure Baghdad to stay in Iran’s orbit

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is travelling to Iraq to try to pressure Baghdad to keep its strategic alliance with Iran amid US-Iran tensions. In the last months the US and Iraq have also engaged in strategic dialogue. Iraq has been a battlefield between the US and Iran, with Iranian-backed militias which are part of Iraq’s government attacking US forces and the US killing a top Iranian commander.

Zarif is in contact daily with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and his visit comes after at least two visits by Esmail Ghaani, the IRGC Quds Force commander. Ghaani took over for Qasem Soleimani when the US killed  Soleimani next to Baghdad International Airport in January. The Iranian ambassador in Baghdad Iraq Masjidi spoke over the weekend and said that Zarif’s visit is aimed at strengthening strategic relations.

— Khosro Kalbasi (@KhosroKalbasi) July 19, 2020
The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Saturday said Zarif will arrive Sunday, July 19. It is supposed to be a trip that comes just before Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi travels to Iran and to other countries, possibly Saudi Arabia. That means that Iran’s message will be to pressure Baghdad to stay close to Tehran. Iran has also signed a deal with Syria to provide air defense for the regime and Iran is trying to provide support for Lebanon’s economy as both Iran and Hezbollah say it is trying to work more closely with China.

Zarif is expected also to meet with Kurdistan Regional Government officials, including Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani. Zarif may also meet with the head of the Hashd al-Shaabi, a group of pro-Iranian militias and Ammar al-Hakim. He will also express condolences for the death of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iraqi militia leader the US killed in January.

Iran’s Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, went to Iraq in March of this year. In March 2019 Iranian President Hassan Rouhani signed a series of important bilateral trade deals with Iraq. Iran supplies Iraq with electricity and other goods and Iran sees Iraq as its “near abroad” trying to control it with a network of political parties and intelligence agents. In August 2018 Iran transferred ballistic missiles to Iraq and it did so again in the fall of 2019. Iran has carried out attacks on US forces in January with ballistic missiles fired from Iran and also used missiles to target Kurdish dissidents in September 2018. Iran is seeking to raise the profile of pro-Iranian militias, called Hashd al-Shaabi, which it seeks to empower the way it does Hezbollah and turn the into a kind of local IRGC in Iraq.