Iran’s Zarif in Russia and China for strategic diplomatic push

Iran’s goal is to conduct strategic dialogue with major non-western countries, including Russia, India and China, positioning itself as part of a large system of countries.

 Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has had a busy forty-eight hours. He flew to Russia on Monday where he met with his Russian counterpart and then headed to China to meet the Chinese for what he says are talks aimed at strategic level cooperation between Iran and China. Less noticed is Iran’s outreach also to India with bilateral meetings and then meetings in Oman with India, discussions about a port deal at Chabahar and meetings in Malaysia and Japan. In short: Iran’s December was one off its most successful diplomatic campaigns in recent memory and it went largely unnoticed.

Iran’s goal is to conduct strategic dialogue with major non-western countries, including Russia, India and China, positioning itself as part of a large system of countries that it hopes will help challenge US hegemony. A naval drill over the weekend with Russia and China was part of this as well as Iran’s push with Oman for a maritime agreement and work on Gulf security.

In Russia Zarif mocked the US attacks on Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq. He called US actions “defensive warmongering” and said the US was acting 1,000ss of miles from home. Iran and Russia are working together on Syria, he said, and it was time to work together in the Persian Gulf. “Next stop: China,” he tweeted. Before leaving, he told reporters that Iran-China relations  are strategic and that it was his 28th visit to Russia in 6 years. He spoke of the naval drills as evidence that “Iran is ready for maintaining navigations freedom” in the Straits of Hormuz. In the past Iran has threatened to close the straits and mined ships in the Gulf of Oman and harassed US ships and kidnapped a British ship.

For Russia’s part Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he was concerned about Western attempts to exacerbate tensions in the Gulf. Russia critiqued EU countries for inconsistencies in dealing with Iran on the nuclear deal.

In China Zarif met with Wang Yi, his Beijing counterpart. They discussed strengthening strategic cooperation. China says it wants to work more with Iran and is hoping for stability in the Middle East and for the continued adherence to the Iran Deal.

Iran is also working on consultations with India and bilateral agreements. That includes the development of the Shahid Behesthi Port in Chabahar and the Trilateral Transit Agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan. Zarif was last in India in May for talks. India’ Minister  for External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited Iran on December 22 and met with Zarif. His visit included the 19th India-Iran Joint Commission and discussed other issues with Iran. The Chabahar port is the main initiative which is an economic life-line for Afghanistan and can aid all three countries.

On Tuesday, December 24 the Indian Minister and Zarif went to Oman to meet Oman’s Foreign Minister Yousuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah. The sides agreed on future maritime cooperation. The visit to Oman  came in the wake of Omani meetings with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and a visit by Abdullah to Iran on December 2.

Iran also notched other diplomatic wins recently. President Hassan Rouhani flew to Malaysia on December 17 to meet with Qatari, Turkish and Hamas representatives and  discuss a global Islamic currency. From the summit in Malaysia he flew to Japan. At the same time Zarif was in  Doha, Qatar where he spoke to the Doha Forum, where dozens of representatives from countries around the world were present. In Qatar, Zarif met with Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN Undersecretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs on December 15.

While Zarif has played the strategic dialogue ambassador of Iranian charm, Rouhani has warned the Middle East and the Iran Deal is on the verge of collapse and that Iran is in a wartime situation. He has also proposed a “HOPE” coalition in the Gulf seeking to extend Iran’s maritime power.

Meanwhile, the US is playing catch-up. After US airstrikes targeted Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria, killing dozens, Pompeo phoned the UN Secretary-General and then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Then he called Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the key official in the UAE, and then called Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Pompeo says the US will continue to work to counter Iran’s destabilizing behavior. “The US will respond decisively to Iranian attacks,” he said.

But for Iran the US threats are more an annoyance when it has global ambitions that Tehran thinks it is fulfilling. After the US attacks in Iraq, which came in response to 12 million and rocket attack on US forces, Iran feels it can respond at a time of its choosing. For now, it wants to push Iraq to believe its sovereignty has been violated and push the US to leave. Iran is playing the long game, seeking a triumvirate of power linking it to Russia, India and China, the rising powers. It believes it has outplayed the Europeans and that the US is withdrawing from the Middle East.