Iraq’s Prime Minister walks tightrope in struggle with militias

It wasn’t so long ago that Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, a former activist and intelligence chief, was wearing a jacket that the Hashd al-Shaabi had presented him. Last night he khaki jacket was no where in appearance as he met his security chiefs in Baghdad at night as tensions rose with a militia that is part of the Hashd.

Kadhimi is walking a tightrope. The Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, part of the Hashd, which is itself part of the security forces, has threatened the Prime Minister, the American forces in Iraq and Iraq’s sovereignty itself. Asaib is run by Qais Khazali, a former US detainee who was held at Camp Cropper, and a former ally of Muqtada al-Sadr in 2004 who broke with Sadr and became a Shi’ite militia gang leader. He fought the Americans, linked up with Lebanese Hezbollah, got himself sanctioned by the US and built Asaib into a formidable military force and armed gang. Asaib was part of the 100,000 members of the Hashd who fought ISIS and have opposed the US role in Iraq. The militia leaders like Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Hadi al-Amiri are close to Iran. The US killed Muhandis in January when he met Qasem Soleimani at the airport. The militias have fired dozens of rockets at facilities where US personnel are located. They have frequently fired Iranian-supplied 107mm rockets at the US embassy in Baghdad. The US has threatened to close the embassy and strike at the Iranian-backed militias.

This brought everything to another crisis this week. Kadhimi wants to balance the militias and Iran and the US. He says he doesn’t want Iraq to be the scene of a proxy war. He has tried his best. But he too is threatened. He tried to detain members of Kataib Hezbollah in June and the decision was reversed. Yesterday he sat cloistered with his generals and Counter-Terror Chiefs. Meanwhile Asaib was talking to Qassem al-Araji, the National Security Advisor and also with Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam, complaining that Baghdad had detained one of their commanders. They gave Kadhimi 48 hours to release the detainee.

This made it appear that the militias might either strike at the Americans or even the government. This brought whispers that Sadr’s own militia men would protect the government from Khazali. It should be recalled Khazali had visited Lebanon in 2017 and threatened Israel. He wants to be part of Iran’s corridor of control across the region. Other Iraqi militias prefer a slower paced pressure on the US. They too want to control the region with Iran, but they are more cautious. Because Asaib has roots in criminality, extortion, kidnapping, assassinations and shake-downs, its criminal element is larger. It is not clear if Kadhimi can out smart these dangerous militias. He has climbed down before. Last night he avoided conflict. Tensions are  high on the anniversary of Soleimani’s killing and as Iran awaits US president-elect Joe Biden coming into office. Iraq is on a tightrope.