Is IED incident a dangerous escalation on southern Golan?

The apparent escalation on Sunday night that resulted in a clash on the southern Golan which Israel says involved a terror squad and an improvised explosive device, is part of a two-week cycle of rising tensions with Hezbollah. It is potentially of the utmost importance because it appears, even as the situation develops, to be part of the cycle going back years in which groups have increasingly sought to threaten Israel from Syria.

It is also unclear, as the incident unfolded, precisely what happened because Syrian regime media, Iranian media, Hezbollah media and the usual bandwagon of media linked to the other side of the area where the incident happened, were unusually quiet as events unfolded.

Israel says it holds the Syrian regime responsible. This forms part of a wider context of two years of tensions along the Golan. In the past there has been rocket fire from Syria in 2018 as the regime increased its hold over southern Syria and defeated the Syrian opposition. In addition, a drone entered Israeli airspace from Syria in February 2018. In addition to a salvo of rockets fired in May 2018 there were also several other incidents of rocket fire in 2019. In addition, Hezbollah has been increasing its operations in Syria, part of the larger Iranian attempt to entrench in Syria. Iran already has a network of bases and trafficking centers for weapons that link Iraq to Lebanon via the T-4 base and Damascus.

In addition, Hezbollah operatives have been killed in July 2019 and February 2020 in Syria near the Golan, according to foreign media reports. Hezbollah also blamed Israel for a drone strike on a vehicle in April. Hezbollah media in recent weeks then blamed Israel for a July 20 killing of their operative in Syria. They ratcheted up tensions and then appeared to mock Israel, claiming Israel was on alert and that Hezbollah had somehow outwitted Jerusalem. Media in Iran pushed this narrative as well as Al-Mayadeen and Al-Manar. Nevertheless, tensions remains high from July 25. An incident that night reported from Syria showed flares in the sky near the Golan.

Hezbollah seemed to be climbing down from threats to retaliate against Israel. It claimed an incident at Mount Dov, where Israel said it had thwarted an attack on July 27. On Sunday the pro-Iran media was initially quiet about the incident on the Golan. Why is it not responding. Al-Manar, Al-Mayadeen, Sputnik Arabic, Sana, Fars News and Tasnim all seemed to be reticent to report the incident on Sunday evening.

This article was written as events unfolded.