Is the coronavirus a blessing for Hezbollah? – opinion

MAY 9, 2020 22:34

Over the past few years, Hezbollah, a designated terrorist organization by the US, UK, Israel, EU (only its military arm) and others, has been increasing its power in Lebanon and slowly replacing the government’s relevance by hijacking institutions and providing civil services in place of the government.

Hezbollah operates a host of social programs: providing financial assistance, training to farmers, free medical treatment for Hezbollah members and operating hospitals and clinics, to mention a few. Most of Hezbollah’s programs benefit the Shi’ite population in southern Lebanon. In the midst of this coronavirus, Lebanon defaulted its $1.2 billion loan this past March, setting up the stage for Hezbollah to take over the government’s role in providing civil services.

Armed with Iranian money (which has dwindled since the US sanctions on Iran), the terrorist organization has a chance to increase its influence beyond the Shi’ite community in the south. With the country facing bankruptcy, the people’s trust in the government will decrease while the trust in Hezbollah will grow ever stronger.

As it is, in the recent 2018 general election, Hezbollah received 16.5% of the popular vote – more than any other political party. By stepping up in place of the government, Hezbollah’s influence has potential to grow further. This is something to look out for in future elections. It could shift the internal politics in Lebanon and pose a threat to the future stability in the region.

In an effort to increase its political influence in Beirut, after the elections, Hezbollah was given the Health Ministry and appointed Hamad Hassan as minister. The current pandemic threw the new minister into the deep end and is serving as a test. Should Hassan successfully handle the crisis, Hezbollah will be perceived as a legitimate political player.

Hezbollah had a good starting point: a number of its fighters returned from Iran where they helped fight the virus – giving them a chance to learn from the mistakes of their protégé. The party mobilized tens of thousands of medical staff and poured money into renting a disused hospital and prepared dozens of medical centers. It seems that the organization has been successful in managing the coronavirus, thus further increasing its influence.

The biggest concern is that Hezbollah, riding the wave of high approval rates in Lebanese society, coupled with its increasing control in government and the parliament, will feel a boost of unnecessary confidence to take greater risks and destabilize the region further.

Since Hezbollah fighters are active in Syria and Iraq as well, this risk has an affect not only on US operations in the region but on their regional allies as well. Hezbollah’s confidence, for instance, may motivate the terrorist organization to continue developing its precision-guided munition program with Iran. This lethal program is designed to upgrade Hezbollah’s 150,000 “dummy missiles” by inserting a GPS component and wings into each missile so that they can close in on a predesignated target and have the ability to correct their trajectory mid-air. This is considered one of Israel’s greatest threats, since the Iron Dome is designed to intercept dummy missiles. Moreover, if Hezbollah launched hundreds of missiles simultaneously, that would overwhelm the Iron Dome system.

There are a number of ways to mitigate this risk. The first action that must be taken is making sure there is no bailout for Lebanon without guarantees from the government that would result in the untangling of strings between it and Hezbollah. It is imperative that a portion of the bailout money be dedicated to fund healthcare and welfare services in order to rollback Hezbollah’s medical and civil programs.

Enforcing counterterrorism laws and laws regarding the funding of terrorist organizations are also crucial. At the same time, we must back the parties opposing the Amal-Hezbollah bloc in the parliament. If we let Hezbollah gain more power and influence in Lebanon it would lead to greater conflicts across the Middle East.

Alternatively, if we wait to bail out the country at a point where Hezbollah is already too strong, Hezbollah might get the credit for the financial recovery – this will only fuel the organization’s credibility in the minds of the people. Much like the coronavirus, we must act now and act hard before we lose control of the situation.

The writer is the director of the Project for Israel’s National Security at the Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET), a pro-Israel and pro-American think tank and policy institute in Washington. He formerly served as the international adviser to security cabinet member Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz.