Israel is closer to war than calm, IDF intel warns government

The IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate warned the political echelon in recent days that war is closer than calm, according to information Walla! received on Tuesday.

According to intel estimates, security tensions will not disappear after the end of the month of Ramadan, and the security trend could lead to war.

According to the same estimates, an unusual response against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran’s affiliates in Syria should be held off to cool down the explosive religious tension that has developed around the Temple Mount.

Al-Aqsa tensions increase online incitement

The intelligence division’s data also shows that the tensions around al-Aqsa Mosque capture the various arenas, and increase the effect of incitement against Israel on social networks.

Additionally, Israel’s enemies recognized the United States’ withdrawal from the Middle East, which included removing advanced aircraft from the region and replacing them with less advanced aircraft.

The Military Intelligence Directorate’s symbol. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

This change affects Israeli deterrence, alongside the growing American preoccupation with China and Russia.

Also, the intelligence estimates that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei decided a year ago to respond to Israel’s actions against the regime in Tehran.

According to the estimates, the Iranian leader demands a response to the assassinations and attacks attributed to Israel, and therefore the Iranians are making an effort to move the terrorist activities into Israel and not stay on the borders.

At this stage, according to the same estimates, the Iranians are not succeeding in their mission, but continue to apply pressure from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank.

Escalation during Passover

Passover began last week with a security escalation in several arenas.

Even before the Seder night, rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip at the Israeli settlements near the strip, while a day later, barrages from the Lebanese territory against the settlements of Western Galilee joined them.

A new arena was opened earlier this week when several rockets were also fired from Syria toward the southern Golan Heights.

At the same time, on Friday, two terrorist attacks occurred – in the Jordan Valley, where a mother and her two daughters were murdered, and in Tel Aviv, where a tourist was murdered.