Israel may be threatened by Iran no matter who wins election

Both politicians, for different reasons, may be ready to cut a deal with the Islamic Republic that may only be cosmetically better than the 2015 nuclear deal.

This could leave Israel in grave danger both on the nuclear front and regarding ongoing attempts by Tehran to extend its Shi’ite crescent over the Middle East.

True, one version of the stakes is that Trump has kept pressure on Iran since May 2018, and only the threat of four more years of him will get the Islamic Republic to agree to new limits on their nuclear program and adventurism in the region.

In this version of the contrast between the candidates, Biden is expected to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran as long as it returns to compliance with the deal. This would keep Tehran from a nuclear weapon until 2025 or 2030 but leave the same holes in the deal as there have been all along.

The other version of the situation is that Trump has said he will cut a deal within four weeks of the election. It is nearly impossible to see the ayatollahs agreeing to major new concessions within four weeks.

This is doubly true since Iran has its own presidential election coming up in June, when the most anti-West factions of the country are expected to gain even more power.

Further, the seeming rush to cut a deal is not a flash in the pan for Trump.

Many Iran watchers were deeply concerned that Trump was ready to cut a deal with the Islamic Republic in September 2019, with only cosmetic differences form the 2015 deal, if only Iran President Hassan Rouhani would agree to a photo op at the UN. There were also multiple instances in which Trump tried to get Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to meet with him.

By some counts, the Trump administration attempted almost a dozen quiet diplomatic openings with the Islamic Republic even as the president made threatening speeches in public.

Former Trump national security adviser John Bolton also refers to trying to run interference at numerous times when Trump would have been ready to prematurely cut a new deal with the ayatollahs.

In contrast, some of Biden’s advisers have said he would only rejoin the nuclear deal if there were substantive new concessions.

Iran may also give Biden a longer window to decide his policy than Trump, who they are already furious with.

They may feel they have a chance with Biden that is not worth ruining with putting him under early pressure as he tries to get a handle on the coronavirus crisis.

Some of Biden’s advisers also think he can do better at rallying Europe and then other world powers to pressure Iran to make concessions. But this could also be wishful thinking.

Neither Trump nor Biden seem serious about emphasizing the military option of striking Iran’s nuclear program, a threat that was part of what brought Tehran to make concessions leading to the 2015 nuclear deal.

More than all of the above, neither Trump nor Biden want to spend much time or political capital on a further extended standoff with Iran. They have the coronavirus crisis, racial divisions, law and order, China, Russia and other issues that are much more pressing and where they would like to invest their energies.

Biden has barely talked about the issue during the campaign, and at times it has seemed that Trump cared more about generally looking tough and undoing the 2015 deal because it was part of former president Barack Obama’s legacy than he did about securing concrete concessions from Iran.

Trump’s maximum-pressure sanctions campaign has succeeded in reducing some of the financial support and footprint of Iran’s proxies in the Middle East. But there are no signs that it is close to getting the regime to crack.

Whoever is elected president on Tuesday, Israel will need to keep a watchful eye. It will need to try to influence policy to keep the Islamic Republic under wraps and be ready to act robustly in self-defense if the security situation becomes more dangerous.