Israeli Intel: Iran Will Have Enough Enriched Uranium for Nuke by Year’s End

Jan 14, 2020 6:41 PM

Members of the media and officials tour the water nuclear reactor at Arak, Iran, December 23, 2019. Wana News Agency/Reuters

Iran will have a sufficient amount of enriched uranium to produce one nuclear bomb by the end of the year, according to Israeli army intelligence estimates for the year 2020.

However, the Israeli army estimates that at this stage, Tehran does not posses a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and would need at least two years to develop such capabilities.

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The United States’ exit from the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 brings intelligence officials to estimate that Iran’s nuclear program is running again after years of not violating the agreement. Israel’s security establishment estimates that by the end of 2020, Iran will have the required amount of enriched uranium to produce one nuclear bomb.

On June 17, Iran said that it would surpass the deal’s 300-kilogram limit on low-enriched uranium, and quadrupled its production. It also threatened to raise enrichment closer to weapons-grade levels on July 7 if the three European countries that still support the 2015 agreement didn’t offer a new deal.

Under the 2015 agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran agreed to limit its enrichment of uranium and submit to UN inspections in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. But President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the accord in May 2018 and has imposed increasingly tough U.S. sanctions to pressure Iran to negotiate a better deal — and the U.S. has threatened sanctions against countries that trade with Iran.

Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani’s death is a stabilizing event in the region for the near future, and despite its lack of impact on Iran’s consolidation in Syria and Iraq, intelligence officials believe it will be appropriate to preserve and even expand what is known as “the campaign between the wars” in order to stabilize the new year’s threats against Israel.

Tehran is facing one of its most challenging periods, according to the assessment, which said its leadership will have to face in the coming year some critical choices which will impact the country’s future. It is believed that for the first time in many years, Iranians no longer hold religion in high regard as a facet of their civilian life.

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Information obtained by Israeli intelligence points that continued protests point to frustration with the Iran’s leadership failure to improve its citizens’ quality of life.

A part of the Arak heavy water nuclear facilities, Iran, January 15, 2011.Mehdi Marizad,AP

Intelligence estimates reveal that by the end of the current year Iran will have 40 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium needed to produce a single nuclear bomb. The information available to the defense establishment indicates that Iran is currently at 4% enrichment level, and by mid-year will reach 20% enrichment which is 70% of the bomb production process, and by the end of the year, Iran can reach the required amount of enriched uranium for one bomb.

However, even if Iran possesses the amount of uranium needed for the bomb, it would also have to pass another obstacle and produce nuclear warhead launch capabilities. The IDF estimates that at this stage it does not possess the missiles that can carry the explosive head and no capability research and experimentation has been conducted.

It’s also believed that reaching such capabilities will require at least two years of development and production.

The security establishment is operating with the assumption that Iran is developing or may develop such a missile even if in secret, not known to intelligence organizations.

The intelligence division noted in its assessment that despite Iran’s declarations of its intention to create the bomb, the Iranian authorities still want all countries, especially the United States to return to the nuclear agreement.

Analysis by intelligence agencies in Israel raised the possibility that Iran may make tough decisions regarding the future of the nuclear program, because it sees the plan as a way to defend its more important goal; the dissemination of the Islamic revolution.

The analysis of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s personality by intelligence agencies in Israel suggests that he is a leader who avoids making difficult decisions, but the intelligence system raises the possibility that developments in Iran and the surrounding area will force him to take an unusual step.

Protests by Iranian citizens due to the difficult economic situation in the country put pressure on the government in Tehran. Iran’s state budget for 2020 is set at $ 115 billion – 65% of the budget should come from oil exports to various countries. Due to sanctions imposed on Iran by the U.S., the country managed to export oil with only $ 10 billion in revenue in 2019.

The Iranian government understands that a complete disengagement from the nuclear agreement could mean that both China and Russia, which buy oil from Iran, will cease to do so – which will put Tehran in a state of economic collapse.

In addition, the IDF believes that the Iranian government understands that continuing a nuclear bomb production process will lead to a situation where various elements will see this as a significant threat and will act against Iran, with all options on the table, including the military intervention.

The United States has made it clear on more than one occasion that it will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and that the government in Tehran will be required to make decisions again this year.

“We understand that the possibility of reaching a conflict or more than that against Iran is not an unreasonable one,” said IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi said last month. He added that “Iran, despite the nuclear program’s restrictions, continues to produce missiles coming into our territory and has doubled its enriched uranium.”

“As long as there is no response to the expansion of the nuclear program, at some point it may leave the realm of strategic dialogue and move to a real capability, that from now on a bomb can be built,” said Kochavi.