Israel’s Octopus Doctrine is a sharp and consistent warning to Iran -analysis

Mossad Director David Barnea indicated on Monday that if Iranian proxies target Israel, Iran would be held responsible, something that could drive up the cost to Iran’s regime. Iran will now not have the impunity to operate from afar – attacking via Hezbollah, Hamas, or others – and not also be at risk of retaliation.

“If Iranian proxies come after us, we will hit Iran directly,” he said. “We will convince the leader [Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei] that terror is not worth it and too costly.”

The Mossad thwarted numerous terrorist attacks against Israelis and Jews worldwide, Barnea said.

“We will not take part in this charade,” he said. “We will not close our eyes to the proven truth. The Iranian regime will have no immunity. The Iranian leadership must understand that attacks against Israel or Israelis, directly or indirectly by proxies, will be met with a painful retaliation… We will not pursue the proxies, but the ones who armed them and gave the orders, and this will happen in Iran.”
“We will not close our eyes to the proven truth. The Iranian regime will have no immunity. The Iranian leadership must understand that attacks against Israel or Israelis, directly or indirectly by proxies, will be met with a painful retaliation… We will not pursue the proxies, but the ones who armed them and gave the orders, and this will happen in Iran.”

Mossad Director David Barnea

The comments indicate that the Iranian leadership needs to understand that its attacks against Israel, or Israelis abroad, will not go unpunished.

This doctrine, however, is not new and was actually spelled out by former prime minister Naftali Bennett in June, when he said Israel was “implementing the Octopus Doctrine… We no longer play with the tentacles, with Iran’s proxies: We’ve created a new equation by going for the head.”

At the time, the comments raised eyebrows. Why is that?

At Asharq al-Awsat, a UK-based Arabic newspaper, an author said Israel has taken action against the head of the terrorist octopus and not just against the arms, as was done in previous decades. The author quoted Bennett regarding the fact that the days of impunity for Iran were over. “We are taking action, everywhere, at any time, and will continue to do so,” Bennett said.

One commentator, Tariq al-Homayed, summarized it this way: “It is evident that there is a noticeable escalation of Israeli operations inside Iran, not only against prominent figures linked to the nuclear program but also military personnel and lower-level scientists.”

Iran International, a media site that is critical of the regime, said Israel was seeking to expose Iranian intelligence failings.

The overall trend in comments from June to September in Israel paints a picture of clear messaging aimed at the Iranian regime. This takes the form of either a warning or a real explanation of what is currently taking place.

However, the key question is whether Iran believes this or whether it cares. Does it take the new doctrine seriously?This is important because Iran is seemingly continuing to operate with impunity – globally. It has targeted Israelis in Turkey, according to reports over the last six months, and it has targeted Albania with cyberattacks, resulting in Albania severing ties with Iran.

However, even though Albania received verbal support from the US, it doesn’t appear that Iran is paying any real price for these actions. Albania is not Israel, but the point is that Iran doesn’t seem to really believe that its actions ever have consequences.

Another piece of evidence that Iran continues to feel impunity is that in mid-August, Iranian proxies targeted US forces in Syria using drones. The US responded with two rounds of airstrikes. And yet there doesn’t seem to be evidence that the Iranians themselves paid a price; rather, some rocket launchers and a vehicle got vaporized by precision airstrikes.

Then there is the case of Aleppo International Airport, which was hit by two rounds of airstrikes. The Syrian regime media blamed it on Israel, but the strikes didn’t take the airport out of action. Iran’s apparent decision to traffic munitions via Aleppo may continue.

The price that Iran may pay could be more complex, involving its need to reshuffle key officials because of scandals closer to home. But Iran doesn’t appear to feel deterred. It is deterred in a sense from direct action against Israel, but Hezbollah is still portrayed as being ready for a confrontation with Israel.

Iran is increasing its rhetoric against Israel’s partnership with US Central Command and Israel’s growing ties with the Gulf states. The second anniversary of the Abraham Accords is taking place this month as Iran ups the threats to any Israeli role in the Gulf.

Clearly, Iran is still ready to put down some verbal redlines. Over the last year, it has continued to harass and threaten ships, it builds new drones that it says can reach Tel Aviv, and it showcased new missiles during a ground forces drill.

One could read Iran’s rhetoric as mere bragging. The regime knows it can’t confront Israel directly, and it prefers to sacrifice members of its proxies, so it talks tough. Iran also develops expendable weapons, such as drones, which means it can conduct constant pin-prick warfare threatening Israel or Israeli friends in the region and not risk its own soldiers.

Overall, the picture that is emerging is that the campaign between the wars, in which Israel works to prevent Iran’s entrenchment in Syria, could reach a new phase via a variety of means. This may include the recent airstrikes against international airports in Syria.

A warning to Iran’s regime

Another aspect of the Octopus Doctrine is a warning to Iran’s regime. This comes in the context of many moving pieces. Iran is seeking a greater role in Syria as Russia is distracted by the war in Ukraine. A Russian setback in Ukraine could affect Russia’s posture in Syria, it could lead to a closer alliance between Russia and Iran and pressure on the US in Syria. Russia is buying Iranian drones, for instance.

At the same time, the Iran deal talks seem stalled until after the elections in November. What might Iran choose to do as it awaits a possible deal? In the past, it has sometimes tried to ratchet up the pressure, either through incidents in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman.

So far, Iran has been careful not to carry out attacks that result in many casualties. One exception is a drone attack on a ship last July. However, Iran’s numerous attacks on US forces in Syria did not cause casualties.

On the other side of the coin, Iran has also not suffered many casualties despite its numerous attacks. This is the balance of operations currently. Despite the rhetoric in Israel and Iran, the overall implications of the Octopus Doctrine remain to be realized.