Netanyahu, MBS close ranks against Iran ahead of Biden presidency

The meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a momentous occasion. It marks another milestone in the warming ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a further closing of ranks in the region against Iranian aggression.

It is noteworthy that we even know the meeting took place. Saudi Arabia doesn’t have a free press. Israel has a military censor that can – and often does – block media from publishing stories that are matters of national security. The Prime Minister’s Office didn’t announce the trip, but no effort seems to have been made to hide the flight path Netanyahu and Mossad chief Yossi Cohen took from Israel to Neom, the Red Sea hi-tech Saudi city.

This tells us that the participants wanted people to find out about the meeting – and, in light of the timing, they are broadcasting a message to one person in particular: US President-elect Joe Biden.

They are telling Biden what they want and need to happen under his leadership, while still under the safe umbrella of support from the Trump administration.

Shortly before departure, Netanyahu publicly spoke out against the Iran deal.

“Do not return to the previous nuclear deal,” he said. “We must maintain an uncompromising policy to ensure Iran does not develop nuclear weapons.”

Saudi Arabia, a target of Iranian aggression in recent years, surely endorses that message, and there is no doubt that Iran was on the agenda for Sunday’s meeting.

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Biden has said he will seek to return to the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the agreement between world powers and Iran which limited and delayed, but did not outright ban, the Iranian nuclear program. Biden said that he would “strengthen and extend it, while more effectively pushing back against Iran’s other destabilizing activities.”

Yet there is concern in Israel and Gulf states that Biden’s vagueness on changes he would seek for the JCPOA could end up putting them in danger.

By displaying a united front, Netanyahu and MBS – as the Saudi crown prince is known – are telling Biden they are willing to take unprecedented, far-reaching steps to counter a nuclear Iran. They are telling Biden, at the very least, to take Israel’s and Saudi Arabia’s security into consideration before rejoining the JCPOA.

Though much has been made of the differences between US President Donald Trump’s extremely favorable policies toward Israel and Biden’s more traditional pro-Israel stance, it is the Saudis who are likely to have a much more difficult time with the incoming administration.

Biden has said he plans to reassess the US-Saudi relationship, which was quite close under Trump. This would entail restricting arms sales and pushing back against Saudi human rights violations, especially in light of the regime’s murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi two years ago.

MBS could see an almost-public display of friendship with Israel as a way to get on Biden’s good side and show him that the Kingdom seeks peace. Further steps toward normalization could follow, to create a positive image for Saudi Arabia as Biden assumes office.

However, it is unlikely that MBS and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman will establish diplomatic ties with Israel before Biden’s inauguration.

The leverage of normalization with Israel is too good for Saudi Arabia to give up without knowing it is getting something in return, whether weapons sales, promises on Iran policy, or something else.

This is also an area in which the Saudi leaders and Biden have shared interests. Both have said publicly that they want the Abraham Accords to go together with progress on Israel-Palestinian peace. The Saudis have their peace plan, which offers full normalization with all Arab states in exchange for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 lines. The kingdom’s foreign minister, in an interview on Sunday, said they continue to adhere to it.

It seems unlikely, however, that the Saudis are going to wait for the Palestinians before recognizing Israel. MBS is enthusiastic about ties with Jerusalem, and Saudi Prince Bandar slammed the Palestinian leadership’s obstinacy several weeks ago.

But they could offer normalization or steps toward it in exchange for a return to negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, or some other form of progress toward peace, which the Biden administration would likely enthusiastically support.

Israel is a willing participant in the Saudi attempt to curry favor with the Biden administration, foremost because of the importance of a united front against the Iranian threat.

But normalization with Saudi Arabia is very important in its own right for the Jewish state.

Saudi Arabia is the crown jewel of the region. It holds a major leadership position in the Arab and Muslim world as custodian of Mecca and Medina, and relations with Israel will reverberate further than ties with the UAE and Bahrain. And for those who criticized the “peace” element of the Abraham Accords as disingenuous – because there was never war – Saudi Arabia, unlike the UAE and Bahrain, sent troops to fight in the Arab wars against Israel in 1948 and 1973.

Between facing the Iranian threat and expanding the Abraham Accords, Israel and Saudi Arabia have a lot to say to the incoming Biden administration – and Sunday night’s meeting sent those messages, loud and clear.