Netanyahu said to believe even if truce deal is signed, it will crumble within weeks

From left to right: Otzma Yehudit leader MK Itamar Ben Gvir, Prime Minister and Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu, and Religious Zionism head MK Bezalel Smotrich, in 2022. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s inner circle is skeptical of threats by far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir to bring down the government if it signs a hostages-for-ceasefire deal with Hamas, according to a Hebrew media report Monday that said the premier anticipates that even if an agreement is reached, it will fall apart within weeks.

The Haaretz daily said that Netanyahu has held numerous meetings in recent weeks to discuss the two ministers’ expected response to a deal, against which they have campaigned intensely.

The report, which cited sources who participated in the discussions, said Netanyahu’s confidants think that in the worst case, Smotrich and Ben Gvir would withdraw from the government but remain in the coalition, preventing the government’s collapse and staving off early elections that could knock Netanyahu out of power.

In any event, Netanyahu’s confidants expect the initial six-week ceasefire, stipulated in the first phase of the deal, to eventually break down — meaning Israel and Hamas will fail to agree on the terms of the next phases — at which point Smotrich and Ben Gvir would return to the government.

The two ministers are expected to reject any proposal, Haaretz said, but their reaction to an agreement would hinge on the deal’s “flagship” issues: Israel’s right to resume hostilities and ongoing presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, separating Gaza from Egypt, and which Netanyahu has insisted on and Hamas has been rejecting.

Ben Gvir, according to the report, is expected to bolt the government after it accepts a deal, even on the most favorable terms. Smotrich, by contrast, is reportedly expected to voice opposition to the deal and insist on changes to it that would not be implemented, before joining Ben Gvir in opposition.

Depending on the timing, the far-right parties’ leave outside the government could coincide with the Knesset’s summer recess. Thus the exodus would have only symbolic effect, Haaretz said. The newspaper also noted that Netanyahu has twice before led governments propped up by parties that had left the government in protest but remained in the coalition.

Israel’s lead negotiators are expected to attend a summit in Cairo later this week, having expressed “cautious optimism” for a deal over the weekend, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

Smotrich, the finance minister, and Ben Gvir, the national security minister, have both voiced staunch opposition to what they have termed a “reckless deal.”

The two control a cumulative 13 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, giving them outsize influence in Netanyahu’s 64-seat coalition.