As Azerbaijan’s regional influence grows, Iran sees a threat to its strategic axis from the Levant to the Caucasus.
By ALEX GRINBERG
Israel and Azerbaijan(photo credit: courtesy of Presidency of Azerbaijan)
The anticipated visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Baku underscores a significant shift in the regional balance of power. Although the date has not yet been announced, official sources confirm that the visit is imminent.
This move highlights Azerbaijan’s emerging role as a strategic bridge between Israel and Turkey, particularly in relation to Syria, and signals new geopolitical dynamics with far-reaching implications.
For Iran, this development is deeply unsettling. Tehran views Baku’s mediation between Jerusalem and Ankara as a direct threat to its ability to project power in both the Levant and the Caucasus. The collapse of the Assad regime—enabled, in part, by the sustained weakening of Hezbollah through Israeli strikes—has already deprived Iran of its primary stronghold in Syria. Turkey’s growing presence in the region further diminishes the chances of an Iranian resurgence.
Iran has long invoked the specter of “Pan-Turkis”, accusing Ankara and Baku of attempting to undermine Iranian interests. Though not a clearly defined ideology, Tehran uses the term to describe coordinated Azerbaijani-Turkish efforts that counteract Iran’s’s disruptive actions across multiple fronts Baku’s increasing involvement in the Levant signals a shift: Israel and Azerbaijan are no longer merely reactive players defending against proximate threats but are increasingly capable of targeting Iranian interests through indirect and strategic means Tehran’s hope to entangle its adversaries with local proxy threats has weakened.
A recent report by Asharq Al-Awsat outlines Israel’s evolving post-Assad strategy in Syria, focused on dismantling Tehran’s military presence with the help of regional partners. As Assad’s grip loosens and Russian influence declines due to its ongoing war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan, a Muslim-majority country and strongly aligned with both Israel and Turkey, has emerged as a potential mediator.
Azerbaijani and Israeli flags. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)
The informal but strategic triangle between Baku, Jerusalem, and Ankara may reshape the Syrian theater. Azerbaijan’s close military and intelligence ties with Israel grant it unique leverage. For Iran, any erosion of its influence in Syria is a red line. The Islamic Republic has spent decades building a land bridge from Tehran to Lebanon, anchored by Hezbollah.
Losing Syria would be a devastating strategic setback. Baku’s growing alignment with Israel also has symbolic weight. Its potential inclusion in the Abraham Accords, Washington’s flagship regional normalization initiative, would mark a milestone in Muslim-Israeli cooperation. Azerbaijan’s secular identity and long history of collaboration with Israel position it as a natural candidate for integration into the Western-aligned bloc.
This momentum has not gone unnoticed in Washington. US President Donald Trump recently praised Azerbaijan’s support for Israel in a letter to President Ilham Aliyev, recognizing Baku’s role in advancing regional stability. The gesture signals Washington’s view of Azerbaijan as a vital actor in countering both Iranian aggression and Turkey’s shifting allegiances within NATO.
Tehran, in turn, has reinforced its ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan’s historic adversary. In a pointed display of military cooperation, Iran and Armenia held joint drills warning against “foreign-designed border changes,” a message directed at Baku and its allies. According to The Cradle, the exercises reflect a shared effort to resist regional realignments seen as threatening to their interests.
Economically and militarily, Iran is leaning on Armenia as a strategic partner to offset the influence of pro-Western Muslim states like Azerbaijan. Yet it is in Syria where Tehran may face the greatest loss. Should Baku successfully broker Israeli-Turkish cooperation, Iran risks losing its vital corridor connecting Iraq and Lebanon, undermining its regional deterrence and ability to supply Hezbollah.
What does this mean for Azerbaijan
By expanding its role in regional diplomacy and security, Azerbaijan is proving to be a powerful geopolitical actor well beyond the South Caucasus. Since 1979, Iran has waged a hybrid campaign against Israel, the United States, and now Azerbaijan. These fronts, the Caucasus and the Levant alike, are increasingly interconnected.
Now surrounded by Abraham Accords members, a resurgent Israel-Azerbaijan alliance, and shifting Turkish calculations, Iran is recalibrating. Its partnership with Armenia represents both a hedge against strategic isolation and a historical alignment. As the U.S. and Israel deepen their ties with Baku, Tehran is likely to respond through proxy escalation and further regional entrenchment.
In this shifting landscape, Azerbaijan’s rise as a mediator between Israel and Turkey—and its prospective role in the Abraham Accords—signals a profound and dangerous change for Tehran. With Baku on the ascent and Syria slipping from its grasp, Iran’s long-held regional ambitions are being challenged like never before.
Alex Grinberg is a Captain (res.) at the IDF’s Military Intelligence research department and an expert on Iran and the South Caucasus. Grinberg is also a fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
Content retrieved from: https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-851365.
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