Report: Iran will retaliate for Natanz explosion – but not directly

Israel’s defense establishment is holding discussions on how Iran might respond to the recent events at its Natanz nuclear facility.

On Sunday, an explosion at the facility led to the disruption of its electrical grid and the cessation of production of IR-6 centrifuges.

All of Israel’s security organizations agree that Iran will respond to the two latest attacks attributed to Israel – one of which occurred earlier this month in the Red Sea – and this estimate will be presented to the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet next week.

However, according to the estimates, Iran will search, and is currently searching, for ways to react that will not implicate them.

The attack may be on Israeli representatives abroad, embassies or Israeli facilities, or it may be a cyber attack on Israeli infrastructure such as water, electricity, banks, and so on. Another option would be a focused operation including several missiles fired from the Golan Heights, similar to what happened in 2019.

Regardless, the estimate is that there will be no direct conflict in the immediate future, both because of Iran’s upcoming elections in June and because of the nuclear talks in Vienna.

At the same time, the defense establishment is not taking chances, and Israeli representatives around the globe have been ordered to remain on high alert. Israel is also taking many actions on the ground, such as placing batteries, reinforcing security in the air, and many diplomatic actions such as speaking with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his staff.

“We are not resting on our laurels and praise,” a security source said. “Every week, operations are conducted in both close and far-off areas, to distance the danger from us.”