Russia-Iran axis grows as both countries bask in Western concern – analysis

Russia and Iran are cementing an alliance, claimed a report in The Wall Street Journal, turning heads on both Moscow and Tehran: “The two US rivals are accelerating efforts to build trade and military ties as they face international isolation.” State media has echoed the report.

One example is the Russian state media outlet TASS. This is clear because state media in Moscow doesn’t write in glowing terms about a foreign report unless it is happy to highlight said report.

“Russia and Iran are strengthening relations in light of Western sanctions against the two states, which worries Washington, columnist Benoit Faucon wrote in his column for the Wall Street Journal,” TASS said. The Journal report said that “Iran and Russia are forging tighter ties than ever, as their international isolation drives the two staunch American foes toward more trade and military cooperation, alarming Washington.”
“Russia is a country that is Iran’s priority for developing relations.”

Iranian ambassador to Russia

Aspirations for a new world order

Russia has long wanted to upturn the US-led global world order that emerged after the Cold War. Russia’s President, China’s leader and countries such as Iran and Turkey want to see the US “unipolar” world destroyed and they want a new authoritarian world order to emerge. The Russian media highlighted aspects of the new alliance, including trade.

Iran’s Fars News, which is close to the IRGC, also agreed with this assessment, reprinting excerpts from the article. Iran’s report repeated key aspects, such as the fact that Russia and Iran have both been sanctioned by the US.

Iran displays parts of S-300 air defense missile system imported from Russia in parade on ”National Army Day.” (credit: FARS)

Iran’s report highlighted comments by its own ambassador to Moscow. The ambassador has discussed growing bilateral trade and cooperation. “Russia is a country that is Iran’s priority for developing relations.”

Iran has emphasized that the relationship between Iran and Russia is growing based on the common interests of both countries and Iran says this has little to do with US policy.

Of course, Iran wants to pretend that US policy doesn’t affect Tehran and that Iran is able to continue to do whatever it wants, regardless of US sanctions.

Iran and Russia’s shared interests

Iran believes that Russia and Iran share many common interests, such as those in Syria, and their ties are growing. A recent visit by Russia’s President to Iran helped cement the ties. In addition, there are talks of possible Iranian cooperation with Russia on drone technology.

Overall the perception is clear that both Moscow and Tehran want the region to perceive their ties as growing and they want to mock Washington’s actions. They want to show that they can avoid sanctions and that US policy will only backfire for Washington in this regard.

This photo was taken at the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day 2022 parade in Tehran. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

It’s not always clear however who is playing the leading role in the Iran-Russia relationship. Iran has been trying to pivot toward closer ties with China in the last several years. Russia wants to use Iran in regard to a new Iran deal between Iran and the West. Russia hopes to benefit from sanctions relief that might be provided to Iran. That makes Russia rely more on Iran than in the past. That means that while Russia is ostensibly the stronger partner, it increasingly needs Iran.

The Syrian job

This has major implications for the region as well. A stronger Iran with a stronger hand in regards to ties with Moscow means Iran can dictate more policies in Syria. If Iran can ask for more concessions from Moscow in terms of using Syria to threaten US forces and Israel this could be a recipe for instability and chaos. Iran of course argues that its ties to Moscow bring “stability” to Syria. But Moscow and Tehran have not shared the same goals in the past in Syria. Russia wants a strong and secure Syrian regime. Iran wants to hollow out Syria and use it as a platform to transfer weapons and threaten Israel. While both Iran and Russia want the US to leave Syria, they don’t agree on how to accomplish this goal. Iran has been threatening US forces in Syria in recent months, resulting in two rounds of US airstrikes last week.

There are other considerations as well. The more that Iran and Russia cooperate, and the more both of them need China, the less Russia-Israel ties may remain as amicable as in the past. If Iran secures a new deal with the West it could get needed sanctions relief and that could empower its role in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen; potentially threatening Israel.

With Russia distracted by the Ukraine war — and angered by close ties between the US, Israel and the West — Russia could try to let Iran conduct more operations in Syria which threaten Israel.

In addition, there could be more Russia-Iran defense cooperation which could impact drone sales and also Central Asia. This could enable Iran to increase its defense abilities in missiles, space and drones. All of this could lead to more Iranian threats either from Syria, Lebanon, Yemen or other places.