Six takeaways from Iran nuke negotiations – analysis

1. Follow-on negotiations: A major reason there has been no deal so far is that the Biden administration has held tough to there being a follow on round of negotiations to address issues which the JCPOA nuclear deal did not address.

These include: ballistic missiles, the Islamic Republic’s destabilization of the Middle East and potentially extending nuclear limits beyond 2030. Israel opposes a return to the JCPOA, partially because it believes a US attempt to get new concessions after lifting sanctions is foolhardy. Jerusalem might be slightly heartened to hear that Washington may be taking this issue seriously even if it will not fully meet Israeli concerns. The US also seems to be taking Tehran’s advanced centrifuge and higher enrichment levels seriously.

2. Iran saving face during the follow-on negotiations: It has now been formally suggested that one way the US might bridge differences with Iran on new concessions is that aspects of the follow-on deal after the JCPOA deal (if any of this happens) might be informal and not signed in an agreement. This will greatly concern Jerusalem, whose experience is that Iran ignores anything it has not signed on to formally and with teeth – and even those commitments are often not honored completely.

If the US goes this route, Israeli intelligence monitoring to see if the Islamic Republic is, say, continuing ballistic missiles development at ranges threatening Israel but not the US, will be as crucial as ever.

3. Sanctions to Raisi will likely come off: The senior US official explicitly did not say whether Washington will remove sanctions from Ebrahim Raisi for human rights violations, now that he is Iran’s president-elect. But in this case a non-commitment is likely a commitment to lift sanctions. It would make negotiations with Tehran extraordinarily difficult if the Biden administration did not raise sanctions on Raisi.

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This is probably what Israel is pushing for to block a return to the JCPOA. But Biden is committed to the return, which means he will likely lift sanctions on Raisi as part of a package deal. If the Us was going to do otherwise, they would be sending a clear signal of no sanctions lifting from the get-go.

4. No date for 7th round of negotiations: After past rounds there seemed to be a rush to start the next round of negotiations to maintain momentum. A US official said there is no return date scheduled. Though critics of the JCPOA might be excited by this, it is more likely that this is a sign that negotiations next time will be more serious and near the end.

Probably, negotiations were dragged out until now so a deal could be struck during the Raisi era so he and the hardliner camp could take credit for positive economic trends in the Islamic Republic. A longer pause probably reflects confidence for a deal and that the hard final decisions on this are finally being debated so that the process will conclude.

5. No IAEA extension yet, but no crisis: The third deadline for lifting sanctions on Iran or an end to IAEA-Iranian cooperation passed on Thursday with a whimper. There was some concern expressed that Tehran would follow-through and end inspections, but it seems everyone is now used to Iranian deadlines being meaningless on this issue.

The bigger question is how long Tehran will extend cooperation this time before the next deadline and whether some small changes will be made in how that cooperation works.

6. No discussion of blown up Karaj nuclear facility: No one even asked, and the US official did not address, the sabotage of Iran’s major centrifuge production facility at Karaj, reportedly by Israel. This was big news in Israel, but much less reported in America. Clearly, the Biden administration and the Iranians – who still are lying about the damage being small – want to move on from this and not allow it to undermine their joint push for a deal.

The attack certainly benefited all countries worried about Iran’s advancement toward a nuclear weapon, but it will not slow down the JCPOA.