Standoff: US, Iran Play Dangerous Game of Chicken in Middle East

Analysts skeptical Tehran will directly target American assets but note the regime could lash out through proxies

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday compared the regime’s current predicament to the Iran-Iraq War, which killed millions and left both countries’ economies in shambles.

“Today, it is not possible to say if conditions are better or worse than during the imposed conflict [against Baghdad in 1980-88],” Iranian media quoted Rouhani as saying. “But at the time, we did not have problems with banking, selling oil, imports and exports – our only problem was a weapons sanction.”

Rouhani was referring to intensifying US economic sanctions that have put enormous strain on vital sectors of the Iranian economy. Notably, Tehran’s vice president later suggested that the government might reinstitute a ration system as was used during the war with Iraq, or begin distributing goods in return for vouchers or coupons.

Meanwhile, in the latest tit-for-tat maneuver, US President Donald Trump – who last year withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, a multi-lateral deal aimed at banning Iran’s development of nuclear weapons – imposed new financial penalties on the mullahs after they decided to forego some of their “voluntary” commitments stipulated in the pact. Tehran simultaneously sent letters to the remaining parties to the deal – Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China – outlining steps the regime would take within 60 days unless those countries found a way to help alleviate the Islamic Republic’s growing economic pinch.

High-ranking Iranian officials have also threatened to shut the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world’s oil supplies pass.

“We’ve heard similar threats over the past few years and we have to remember that Iran right now does not have much leverage over the international community,” Dr. Emily Landau, head of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, told The Media Line. “I do not see [the regime] carrying out these warnings… as it would only galvanize the world against it.”

Landau noted that the US has limited options for coercing Tehran back to the negotiating table in order to negotiate a better nuclear accord, address its “very dangerous” ballistic missile program and curb its regional expansionism.

“The only strategy that has proven to have any measure of success over the last 15 years is one of pressure,” she stressed to The Media Line. “This boils down to economic and diplomatic sanctions, statements about prospective use of military force – and from among these choices, the one being pursued currently has the best chance [of bearing fruit].”

Meanwhile, Israeli media reported over the weekend that the Mossad spy agency passed along intelligence to Washington about an alleged Iranian plot to attack Saudi-owned oil production facilities. This apparently prompted the White House to direct the Pentagon to send an aircraft carrier to the Gulf and a fleet of B-52 bombers to a base in Qatar, and to deploy additional Patriot missile batteries to the region.

The report claimed that Israel’s military brass was increasingly concerned about a potential conflagration between the US and Iran, in which case the Iranians might target the Jewish state through its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip.

In this respect, just hours after Iran announced its intention to “diminish” its adherence to the nuclear deal, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu reiterated that he would not allow the Islamic Republic to obtain nuclear weaponry.

“We will continue to fight those who would kill us,” he said in a speech at a Memorial Day ceremony.

Professor Meir Litvak, director for the Alliance Center of Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, believes the Iranians would be “foolish” to open up a direct military front against the United States, whose capabilities are vastly superior.

“What was expected after Washington withdrew from the JCPOA was tough economic sanctions against Iran, which, in turn, would try to isolate the Americans or reach new understandings with the Europeans or Chinese,” Litvak explained to The Media Line. “However, recent developments regarding a US military build-up marks a turning point in the process we have seen so far.”

While the Iranians are generally very cautious, he added, “it is possible the regime could carry out activities through its underlings to allow it to maintain plausible deniability even though everyone would know that Tehran is the major [arms] supplier, trainer and strategic guide.”

Despite his hardline positions, President Trump last week reiterated a willingness to engage Iran, which has thus far rejected all US overtures, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that Washington is not seeking war with the Islamic Republic.

The US president nevertheless warned of a real risk of military confrontation unless Iran alters its behavior.

This carrot-and-stick approach “sends a signal to the Iranian leadership that it must comply with American and international demands,” Dr. Eldad Pardo, an Iranian Studies lecturer at Hebrew University in Jerusalem and research director at IMPACT-se, told The Media Line. “Iran should be a thriving, independent country within its borders, with great international relations, but without nuclear weapons or conquering an empire in the Middle East.”

Pardo expressed skepticism that such a scenario could be actualized, observing that Hossein Salami, the new chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, only two months ago stated that Iran’s regional adventurism had nothing to do with self-defense. Instead, Salami described the expansionism as a natural extension of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s continued commitment to exporting the radical Shi’ite Islamic ideology that formed the basis of the 1979 revolution.

As things stand, Iran appears to be taking a page out of the US playbook, giving the Europeans, in particular, a few more weeks to help offset the pinch of economic sanctions. Otherwise, as Rouhani has defiantly stated, Tehran could resume enriching uranium to higher levels, a move that is liable to have serious consequences.