May 27, 2019
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
A shorter version appeared at The Jerusalem Post
With the European elections results coming in overnight there are some surprises, but many predictable outcomes. The elections have ramifications for Europe’s position in the world because the more Europe is unstable and fractured by infighting the less it will play a role in world affairs. In addition the more extreme parties in Europe will fuel the continued cycle of the instability, likely exacerbating the inability of the continent to act as a whole on policies, leaving such issues as immigration and security in the hands of states that have deepening societal divisions.
Overall Europe is neatly divided between more left leaning and right leaning parties. A look at the EU election map actually shows that, despite different headlines about the “rise” of the far-right. But inside the two major wings there are many changes, such as the rise of the Greens on the left and the rise, here and there, of populists on the right. Overall the elections are a reflection of Europe’s struggle for its identity after the Cold War. The weakening of the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats is a loss of consensus as new generations come of age. Some are searching for populism, others for far-left answers. They don’t trust the “elites” on both sides. That is why coalitions can emerge as has happened in Italy.
But overall the centrists can outplay these extremists by working together because the centrists usually have just over fifty percent of the vote. Usually the populists, nationalists and far-right may have between 10 and 30 percent, but the Greens and far left also have around 5-20 percent. The center still holds. But for how long. These older politicians like Juncker cannot lead Europe this century much more. They have no answer to immigration and other issues. The rise of Flemish nationalists and Catalan separatists may be mocked in Brussels or Geneva, but as Farage said in 2016, “look whose laughing now.” His odyssey shows how even when you “win” by passing something like Brexit through a referendum, the realities of the bureaucracy and European states and norms, make it had to achieve results. The populists like Wilders, whose party failed to win a seat, don’t really have much of a plan. They are protesters, and they may point out legitimate problems, but they don’t usually govern, and if they had a chance to govern they likely wouldn’t have answers either. The Catalan separatists, for instance, voted to leave, but then it was they who left, they didn’t want to actually fight for independence. And this is the problem. Because the protest vote is still bourgeoise in many ways. And no one really is will to discuss real changes. So the top ossifies, the Merkels and Mays and others. And Salvini in Italy may say that Europe is changing. But is it?
The problem Europe faces is that its past parties have largely failed. This happened before between 1980 and 1920 with the role of such politicians as Giovanni Giolitti in Italy or Stanley Baldwin in the UK. It took decades to erode this consensus. While the ossifying older “elite” parties are out of touch, the new parties also have not proved that they can deliver. A third wave may eventually emerge. So far the Greens or Liberals that here and there do well are still down around 10 percent or so. Because they too lack the ability to create what Orban has in Hungary, which is real dominance and consensus.
Here is a quick glance at what we know so far on Monday.
Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party remakes map of UK politics
The pro-Brexit leader Nigel Farage, who appeared to leave politics after the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016, led a new party to a surprising thirty percent of the votes in the UK European elections. These elections weren’t supposed to even happen because the UK was already supposed to have left the EU. His message was that his party wants to take responsibility for leaving the EU and that if the ruling Conservatives don’t act then they will be crushed at the next polls.
The Conservatives already were humiliated in the EU elections in the UK, receiving less than ten percent. The Liberal Democrats performed well with almost 20 percent of the vote while Labour slipped to 14 percent and the Greens grabbed 11 percent. It’s clear that a coalition of Labour, the Greens and Liberal-Democrats, with the Scottish Nationalists, likely could run the UK after the next general election. For now it is the EU that will be getting Farage back.
Content retrieved from: https://sethfrantzman.com/2019/05/27/surprises-and-traditions-on-eus-election-night-a-country-by-country-breakdown/?fbclid=IwAR1IdaEH_xZFN53b0kpV5i9H4af1B2BLlo4FIoNGxm6EJ1hVgBx_21yekoM.
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