After years of failed attempts at talks and cease-fires, COVID-19 may be enough to push the Saudis, Houthis, and Yemeni government to the negotiating table.
On March 23, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for a global cease-fire amid the escalating coronavirus crisis. Two days later, he singled out Yemen, urging an immediate end to hostilities and renewed negotiations. While ongoing fighting between Houthi forces and the Saudi-led coalition in the intervening weeks may have suggested such calls would go unheeded, the unprecedented unilateral Saudi cease-fire and the threat of the coronavirus pandemic may help push all parties into uncharted territory.
On April 9, less than two weeks after the Houthis sent a missile that was intercepted over Riyadh and the Saudis responded with their biggest aerial bombardment of Sanaa in years, Riyadh began a unilateral two-week cease-fire. While the Houthis have yet to agree, saying the coalition’s blockade on Yemen must be lifted first, the announcement marks the first time that the coalition has agreed to a cessation of hostilities since 2016. It is its first unilateral cease-fire. Mere hours into the announcement, each side has already accused the other of launching attacks since the cease-fire began, but even if the Saudi concession can lead to a temporary de-escalation, it could help renew the U.N. process to end the five-year war, which has killed more than 100,000 people and led to the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. Likewise, the threat of the coronavirus may well provide the urgency, common interest, and face-saving opportunity for all parties to agree to the U.N.-sponsored cease-fire and a shared epidemic mitigation strategy—which could lay the foundation for eventual peace talks.
Riyadh’s renewed pursuit of direct talks has been expedited by anxiety over the havoc the coronavirus may wreak in war-torn Yemen. Yemen already suffers from serious strains on its medical facilities, a lack of proper medical equipment and training, and a large population of people with underlying medical conditions, including malnutrition. A coronavirus outbreak could devastate the health care system and leads to tens of thousands of deaths. These fears spurred all three parties—the Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi government, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis—to respond positively through official statements to Guterres’s call for an “immediate global cease-fire.” Now, Saudi Arabia has turned its rhetoric into action by announcing the cease-fire.
While Saudi Arabia’s war strategy since 2015 has been to stay the course until victory, its actions more recently suggest it is seeking an exit. Notably, in late January, when the Houthis overran Yemeni government forces to take Nihm—a critical district that sits at a pivotal crossroad northeast of Sanaa—the Saudis reportedly did little to contest the advance. Moreover, the Saudi foreign minister confirmed his country’s continuing commitment to a dialogue with the Houthis after the attack. This statement signaled a notable shift in the kingdom’s strategy: Saudi Arabia prioritized its talks with the Houthis over preventing the first major Yemeni government military loss in years. Similarly, after responding to the missile attack that reverberated over Riyadh last month with retaliatory strikes on Sanaa, the Saudis again recommitted to hosting talks. This stance appears to reflect a new reality: The Saudis want out.
Saudi Arabia is right to prioritize a political solution that includes a bilateral settlement of terms with the Houthis. The alternative may be a fait accompli via a series of Houthi military victories that increasingly best the already weak Hadi government forces. In addition to taking Nihm district and much of al-Jawf province, including its capital, they are advancing in Marib, the economic heart of Yemen.
Marib represents a safe haven and the last real stronghold of the Yemeni government in northern Yemen. A battle for Marib would not be easy, nor is a Houthi victory inevitable. (In fact, pro-government forces and local tribes are pushing back, and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to take a hands-off approach there if a real battle commences.) But a Houthi victory there could spell an end to the already tenuous grasp of the Yemeni government in northern Yemen. Such a shift in the national balance of forces could radically alter the prospects for a peace agreement, as the Houthis may be less inclined toward a transitional government if they effectively control northern Yemen and think they can push into the south.
In short, the fight for Yemen’s future is at a critical juncture. Saudi Arabia is signaling an unprecedented willingness to end the war; simultaneously, the Houthis are pushing on the war’s front lines in a way that, if successful, could take the prospect of a transitional government off the table. As an unexpected silver lining, however, the threat of a devastating pandemic has created the conditions wherein all parties could agree to a cease-fire without appearing to give in to their adversary. Already, the Saudis cited the coronavirus as one reason for their cease-fire initiative. If undeniable signs of the coronavirus begin to appear in Yemen, as is expected, the Houthis may well be incentivized to agree to the cease-fire as well.
In the event of mutual cease-fire talks, hosted either in Saudi Arabia or an acceptable third country, it is likely that two sets of negotiations will take place: Saudi-Houthi talks and Hadi-Houthi talks. For both sets of interlocutors, trust is wholly lacking, making a quick settlement unlikely. However, a number of interim confidence-building measures could be proffered to build trust.
Content retrieved from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-pandemic-peace-talks-yemen-houthi-saudi-arabia/.