The new situation in Syria: Why did Israel return to attack?

In the Syrian arena, a new situation has been created in the past six months. More precisely, a new deployment of forces operating against Israel, led by Iran. This deployment and the intensification of US sanctions on Iran forced Israel to change the IDF’s and the defense establishment’s operational patterns in order to protect its security interests.

In this context it is important to note that Israel’s interests have not changed. Preventing the establishment of an Iranian ground force in Syria, including rockets, intelligence and air defense forces. Preventing the transfer of high-quality weapons, especially accurate and heavy rockets and rockets, from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and preventing the violation of Israeli sovereignty by firing into its territory from Syria or infiltrating hostile elements.

The exchange of blows in recent days, some of which are attributed to Israel, has caused great damage to the territory of Syria and illustrate the situation and its components well. The two rockets fired from Syria on Saturday night were the result of the establishment of the army of the Syrian regime near the Purple Line (the 1974 ceasefire line) in the Golan Heights.

The Syrian army returned there after the Russian army achieved a commitment from Israel not to interfere with the Assad regime’s takeover of the entire Syrian Golan Heights and southern Syria. In return, the Russians received a promise from Damascus that the military would not harm the local villagers who were in difficulty with Israel and that the cease-fire agreements would be re-applied throughout the territory, including the presence of UN forces on the ground.

The Syrian army was conducted almost according to the same layout as before the civil war in Syria in 2011. On the Syrian Golan Heights, on the southern outskirts of Damascus, the Division 1 is responsible for two lines. In the “security zone” that launches the border with Israel, there are two brigades, 90 and 112, the rest of the division is deployed in a rear formation, where fortifications and logistic camps are placed.

Formally, the commander of Division 1 is in fact the military commander of the territory, but not formally – the situation is different.

The Russians committed themselves to distance all the Iranian elements and militias acting on their behalf at least 80 kilometers east of the border with Israel. However, as soon as the control of the territory was handed over to the Syrian army, Hezbollah began to establish itself in order to establish another front against Israel. The establishment was based on the support and guidance of the Qods Force members of Qassem Suleimani.

Iranian presence and Israeli surveillance

The Iranians themselves have disappeared from the field so that the Russian military police will not recognize them and demand that they stay away, but Hezbollah, some of whom are local residents, Shiite and Palestinian militias from the Yarmuk refugee camp, are all in the field and operated by Hezbollah’s “southern command.”

They set up observation posts from which they examine where it is possible to penetrate into Israel and where it is possible to strike, and Hezbollah operatives are working in the villages to recruit more and more activists. As a result, there is a mixed presence of elements operating in sending Hezbollah and Iran inside and between the Syrian army posts.

The regime’s army now has an interest in demonstrating sovereignty in the territory it controls – in order to frighten the residents of the region under its authority, and also to show Israel that it has passed the days when it acted as it wished in Syria against those who try to harm it. But at the same time, the regime’s army continues to allow Hezbollah’s headquarters and other elements to operate in the territory under its control.

Israel must continue to monitor this situation and make sure that it does not settle and that it will not be possible to secretly establish a Hezbollah and Iranian outpost near the border with Israel.

Among other things, Israel sends unmanned aerial vehicles that monitor what is happening in Syrian territory without even crossing the border. The Syrian anti-aircraft unit is acting against them to demonstrate sovereignty, and this is one reason that occasional shells or anti-aircraft missiles are being fired from the Syrian side into Israel – without any attack on Syrian territory. Trying to hide.

The Syrian cannon that fired last week at an Israeli fighter plane flying in our territory was launched as part of Syrian nervousness from Israeli intelligence. According to Israeli policy, the sovereign in the area is responsible, valid and destroyed the Syrian anti-aircraft cannon.

The two rockets fired south of Damascus on the upper cable car on Mount Hermon belong to and do not belong to this story. It is reasonable to assume that the shooters were people who acted on Hezbollah’s behalf to signal to Israel that its threats to harm the workshops to improve the accuracy of the missiles in Lebanon would lead to war, as the organization threatened. It can be assumed that Hezbollah sent the two missiles to the upper cable car to signal that Nasrallah was serious in his threats.

On Friday, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah delivered a harsh speech in honor of Jerusalem Day, mainly following the demand that the Americans hand over to the Lebanese government to stop all Hezbollah workshops to improve the accuracy of the missiles in exchange for an Israeli agreement to compromise the economic waters off the country’s shores. And destroy these workshops.

Nasrallah, whose organization is in dire financial straits and is not interested in getting involved in the war with Israel, took the threats seriously and his inflammatory speech, in which he threatened to hit accurate missiles throughout Israel, was in fact an expression of his anxiety and a conscious effort to deter Israel. The rockets may have been an effort to give a “kinetic force” to the verbal threat. The damage caused almost no damage, but a civilian facility landing in an Israeli tourist area sends a clear message.

The base of the three armies

On Wednesday night, official sources in Syria reported an attack attributed to Israel at T4 airport, southeast of the city of Homs. The media reported that some were Syrian soldiers and some were “foreigners”. At the beginning of the year, the Iranians left the facilities and warehouses they had at Damascus International Airport and moved to operate from the T4 military airport.

The move was made after Syrian reports that Israel repeatedly attacked high-quality weapons shipments, mainly precision missiles and anti-aircraft weapons, which arrived on Revolutionary Guards transport planes from Tehran and were mainly intended for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Russia claimed that Israeli air strikes on Damascus International Airport endangered civilian aviation and could cause disasters and kill innocent passengers on the airways. Israel claimed that as long as the Iranians use civilian aviation as a shield for their military activity, Israel can not refrain from attacks because the military equipment that passes through the airport seriously jeopardizes its security.

The Russians accepted this argument and demanded that the Iranians stop sending arms and military equipment to Hezbollah and the Shiite militias, and the transfer of these militias to Syria via Damascus International Airport.

The deterioration in Iran-Russia-Syria relations

In the background there is considerable deterioration in relations between Iran and Russia as a result of economic competition over oil concessions, phosphates and large infrastructure projects designed to rehabilitate Syria from its ruins. The Iranians also want some of the ports in Syria. 

Another major reason for tension between Russia and Iran is the fact that Sulaymani’s efforts in Syria are driving Israeli attacks, and this is disrupting Russian efforts to reach a political settlement and a truce that will end the civil war in the country. This argument also persuades Assad to deny Tehran much of what it demands. One must also wonder how the Russians will respond to an attack attributed to Israel near their forces on T4.

All this causes competition and tension between Syria and Russia, which also has a military aspect. It can be estimated that both the Russians and the Iranians are trying to plant senior Syrian officers who are loyal to them at the top of the regime, the army and the intelligence services in the country. A situation was created in which Division 5 was considered loyal to the Russians, while Division 4 was loyal to the Iranians.

It should be noted that the Syrians still need the Iranians and their Shiite militias, because a large part of Syria has not yet been occupied by the territory. The Idlib district, for example, is still the stronghold of the rebels and there are fierce battles there.

Given the current situation, the Iranians had no choice and were forced to leave the international airport and move to the military field “T4”, which Assad agreed to transfer part of it to their control. In addition to the Syrian air force and the Iranian part, there is an area in the military field where Russian military personnel are located, as well as anti-aircraft and anti-aircraft installations operated by them. It is possible that even in this field, or near it, are S300 missiles operated by the Russians.

From the Israeli point of view, the very fact that the Iranians are based in Syria with ground forces and high-quality weapons systems, even if not in the Damascus area, poses a significant security threat because the transfer of equipment and fighters from the T4 to the Lebanon Valley is easier and faster than from the Damascus and Israel regions It is harder to follow.

Therefore, as reported, the Israeli Air Force attacked at the airport. It can be assumed that this was done to damage the infrastructure that the Iranians are setting up in the field as a substitute for the missile warehouses and their headquarters at Damascus International Airport. The Syrian opposition reported a damaged missile arsenal and foreigners, apparently Iranians or Shiite militias, who were killed and wounded.

The attack attributed to Israel is interesting because, in the recent period, the IDF has almost refrained from attacks to prevent Iranian consolidation in Syria, because the Iranians have launched a confrontation with the US and its allies in the Middle East in response to the economic sanctions imposed on them and the dire economic situation in Iran. Hezbollah is also affected by this, and a large part of its budget comes from Iran.

Israel had an interest in lowering its profile in this situation, so that it would not be possible to say that it dragged the United States into a war against Iran and that it would be preferable for the US and its Arab allies to deal with the situation. Israel would only assist with intelligence information and assessments, but not be dragged into violent confrontation.

But from the moment the Iranians began to base themselves on T4 and quickly turn the field into a regional logistic base that also serves Hezbollah, Israel apparently could not help but use the air force.

In the IDF, the situation in Syria is now being described as an “emergent situation,” a situation in which the familiar Syria is disappearing, and a new deployment of the Iranians and their proxies in Syria is taking shape, yet it is clear that the Iranians and their proxies have not renounced the establishment of another front against Israel in Syria. To prevent the crossing of the red lines it had placed in the northern arena.