The next round will probably be worse

The prevailing assessment in the defense and security establishment is that while Israel has restored deterrence against terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip for the short-term, in the absence of any advancement toward a long-term peace deal, the calm that was restored on Monday will not hold for more than a few weeks.

Although no Israeli officials are saying so, Memorial Day for Fallen Soldiers and Victims of Terrorism and Independence Day – as well as next week’s Eurovision pop song extravaganza – were main considerations in Israel’s decision to hold back, and the defense establishment was working under instructions not to cross any retaliatory lines that might worsen the escalation.

In the past few weeks, the Gaza Brigade has been operating under warnings that the Islamic Jihad might execute a potential large-scale terrorist attack near the border fence. Defense officials think that this rogue group wanted to take advantage of the days leading up to Eurovision and ruin the international event.

The incident that set off the recent few days of intense conflict took place on Friday, when Islamic Jihad sniper fire wounded an IDF officer and a female soldier. In response, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi decided to dial up the Israeli response and attack a manned Hamas outpost that was not on the border itself. This prompted the organization to respond in an “eye for an eye” manner.

It appears that Hamas wanted a response that was more limited in scope, such as a sniper attack or firing an anti-tank missile, but the Islamic Jihad – which does not always obey Hamas – starting firing on Israel without coordinating with Hamas. Following the Israeli response to the rocket fire, in which the IDF attacked Hamas as well as the Islamic Jihad, Hamas decided to fire its own rockets – heavy barrages for every major Israeli retaliatory strike.

That is how some 690 rockets and mortars wound up being launched at Israel in under 48 hours. Actually, the number is higher, because not all the rockets that were fired made it over the border fence. Most of them landed in unpopulated areas, and some 240 were intercepted by Israel’s air defenses. The soldiers who operate those systems displayed impressive capabilities, but a few dozen still landed in populated areas, killing four Israelis, wounding many others, and causing considerable damage.

This time, the terrorist organizations were using more firepower and rockets that had a range of up to 40 kilometers, as well as the new Badr model, which carries a heavy load of explosives. These rockets are not high quality, and the ones that made it over the border were intercepted by Israel’s air defense troops. Hamas and the Islamic Jihad were warned not to fire at the greater Tel Aviv area to avoid an especially harsh Israeli response that could drag both sides into a full-scale conflict.

Israeli officials think that Hamas wanted an immediate cease-fire so it can get back to working on an agreement that will improve the economic and humanitarian situation in Gaza, but the defense establishment wanted to go far enough so Islamic Jihad wouldn’t want to escalate things with Israel, either.

Of the 350 or so retaliatory strikes the IDF carried out in Gaza, more aggressively than in the past, a few dozens were aimed at Islamic Jihad targets. In effect, the 29 casualties in Gaza included 10 Islamic Jihad operatives. The defense establishment says that the purpose was to “bend” the terrorist group, but not break it.

This time, Israel used tools it has not taken out of its belt for a while, including the first targeted killing in years. Actually, there were two – one was a money changer who played a major role in bringing Iranian funds to Gaza terrorist organizations, and the second was a Hamas drone operator.

No one in Israel is promising that the latest round brought calm that will last more than a few weeks, but the reigning belief is that the risk of Islamic Jihad firing on Tel Aviv during the Eurovision has dropped, if not disappeared. The IDF thinks that it must maintain and increase deterrence when it comes to the rogue group.

Israel is also refusing to disclose the details of the cease-fire agreement with Hamas, but apparently, it did not include any new benefits. As of 4:30 a.m. Monday, both sides stopped firing.

Either way, if no political understandings are reached, it’s only a question of time when we’ll see the next round of escalation, and it won’t be very long before it happens. Battles like this start again from where they left off, so it’s likely that the next escalation will be even more violent.