Trump in a corner after rockets kill US contractor, wound forces

A US civilian contractor was killed and several US service members and Iraqi personnel wounded during a rocket attack on the K-1 base near Kirkuk on Friday night. It is the most serious escalation in a series of rocket attacks that have targeted bases in Iraq where US and Coalition troops are present. Since May 2019 there have been at least a dozen of these attacks. Some of them wounded Iraqi security forces, but US forces have not suffered casualties until December 27. That day will not be a crux moment for the US in Iraq. US President Donald Trump must decide to respond, as the US has threatened to do.

The rocket attack comes amid a political crises in Iraq where the prime minister has resigned and president has threatened to resign. Protests have swept the country for three months and Iranian-backed forces are accused of killing up to 500 protesters in Iraq. At the same time Iraq is a center for Iranian entrenchment and weapons transfers that threaten Israel. This means any US response has a regional impact that can affect Syria and Israel and the Gulf.

The first issue facing the administration is to decide who is responsible. There are two possibilities. Either it is ISIS or it is a group linked to Iran. The official US statement from CENTCOM says that a rocket attack took place at an Iraqi military base in Kirkuk hosting Coalition troops on December 27 at 7:20pm. “Iraqi security forces are leading the response and investigation.” Last night reports indicated that Iraqi Federal Police had located the rocket launcher and found four rockets intact.

The widespread assessment is that ISIS doesn’t have the capability to fire many rockets. It hasn’t conducted rocket attacks recently. ISIS has been increasing its activity around Kirkuk and Diyala areas and has networks operating in caves and streams linking Kirkuk to Hawija, Hamreen mountains and up toward Makhmour and west toward the desert.

In the wake of the rocket attack James LaPorta of Newsweek reported that “US intelligence officials tell me they believe Iranian-back[sic] militias to be the culprit for the rocket attack on K-1 Base in Kirkuk, killing a Pentagon contractor and wounding several US service members…roughly 11 to 14 rockets struck the base.” Lucas Tomlinson at Fox News reported that sources say around 30 rockets landed at the base. Several US troops were injured. “It’s not immediately clear how severe the injuries are. This is the 11th rocket attack on US and Iraqi forces since late October, according to a US defense official.”

Reuters claimed the US was looking into the possibility that Kataib Hezbollah was behind the attack. Security forces of the Federal Police found a “launchpad for Katyusha rockets inside an abandoned vehicle near the base.” There is confusion about the overall number of rockets fired and what happened. Initial reports said that more than 10 rockets were fired and that a munitions storage facility was struck, causing it to blow up. But then estimates said the overall number of rockets fired was more than 30, as many as 36, and that at least four intact rockets were found. It’s thought a Bongo style truck with rockets mounted on the back was used.

As the investigation unfolds Trump will be reminded that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has warned Iran repeatedly against attacks on the US in Iraq. In mid-December Pompeo said the US was reminding Iran’s leaders that “any attacks by them, or their proxies of any identity that harm Americans, our allies, or our interests will be answered with a decisive US response.”

On December 6 David Schenker, Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs at the US State Department indicated that Iran could be behind an attack on Iraq’s Balad air base. In that attack two Katyusha rockets landed inside Balad air base north of Baghdad. “We’re waiting for full evidence, but if past is prologue then there’s a good chance that Iran was behind it.” A US military official went further on December 12, telling NPR that a rocket attack by four Katyusha rockets near Baghdad airport was part of a broader trend attacks on US and Coalition positions. He said these included a November 8 attack on Qayarrah West base with 107mm rockets fired from a truck. Then came a December 3 attack from a truck using 122mm rockets aimed at Al-Asad base. The official then referenced 240mm rockets being fired near a US compound in mid-December. Those are Iranian-made rockets. The US pointed a finger at Kataib Hezbollah at the time. These larger rockets were first used against US forces in 2007, also by pro-Iranian groups in Iraq.

On December 17 US CENTCOM said that the US had made clear that attacks would not be tolerated. Throughout the attacks the US has relied on Iraqi forces to investigate. Those forces have sometimes found the trucks linked to the attacks. As far back as February and May rocket launchers aimed at US bases had been found, but those reports were largely ignored at the time. The pattern of attacks has grown so intense that it now led to casualties.

If the US determines that pro-Iranian groups were behind the recent attack it will have to decide how to respond. The US sanctioned Qais Khazali, head of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, on December 6. Khazali’s group is one of many in the Popular Mobilization Units, a paramilitary unit made up of mostly Shi’ite militias. Many of these groups have close links to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This includes Badr, which has the largest number of PMU brigades, Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Asaib Ahl al-Haq.

Kataib Hezbollah is run by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy of the PMU and a US-designated terrorist. Muhandis has threatened US troops in the past. He has also said the PMU needs an air force and has pointed a finger at the US and Israel for attacks on Kataib Hezbollah bases in the past. In August he said the US and Israel had conspired to attack PMU munitions warehouses after four blasts destroyed PMU storage facilities in July and August. US officials expressed concern about tensions with Israel in Iraq and Syria after the incidents. Kataib Hezbollah also had a base near Albukamal in Syria on Iraq’s border. That headquarters was destroyed in an airstrike in June 2018.

Last week Israel’s Chief of Staff indicated Israel opposed Iranian entrenchment in Iraq. Iran has been alleged to be transporting ballistic missiles to Iraq since August 2018. On December 4 reports said that intelligence agencies had been tracking new Iranian shipments of ballistic missiles to Iraq.

In addition Iraq is in the midst of a political crises. The Prime Minister has resigned and the President has threatened to resign after almost three months of protests. 500 Iraqis have been killed and 19,000 wounded. The pro-Iranian militias, like Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Saray Khorasani, are blamed for killing protesters. Iran wants to push a pro-Iranian candidate for Prime Minister. This means that the rocket attack comes at a key moment in Iraqi history.

The Iraqi President Barham Saleh has been condemned by Asaib Ahl al-Haq for being seen as to close to the US. Pompeo has met Iraqi leaders in January 2019 and then in May when he warned of Iranian threats. He also met Saleh in September on the sidelines of the UN. Iraq could be seen as a key place of struggle between the US and Iran. However US forces are in Iraq at the invitation of the government to help fight ISIS. There I no mandate to also fight Iran. Iraqi politicians were angered when Trump said the US could use Iraq to “watch” Iran in comments in December 2018 and January 2019.

While the rocket attack near Kirkuk could lead to a US-Iran crises, Iran is holding naval drills with Russia and China and claiming that US hegemony is weakening. Iran has already attacked oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and downed a US drone. It also attacked Saudi Arabia in September. It has launched at least four rocket attacks on Israel from near the Golan, in May 2018 and January, September and November 2019. In this context the next move that Trump chooses in Iraq has implications across the Middle East.