Turkey continues armored build-up for Idlib

Turkey has concentrated hundreds of armored vehicles in Idlib province to try to slow-down a Russian-backed Syrian regime offensive. New photos on Saturday showed Leopard tanks and a T-300 rocket launcher as part of a Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher Kasirga system. This represent’s Turkey’s commitment to Idlib where some 900,000 people have fled a Syrian regime offensive and Turkey has watched Syrian opposition forces collapse in the face of bombardment. Turkey supports some Syrian rebel factions but is also working closely with Russia.

Turkey has poured more more than 10,000 soldiers into Idlib n the last weeks as the  Syrian regime overran large numbers of villages. Since September 2018 there was a Turkey-Russia agreement over Idlib, one of the last areas held by Syrian rebel and extremist groups. However the extremists have targeted Russan bases in Syria and the Syrian regime wants to push them back. N doing so a large humanitarian crises resulted. Turkey doesn’t want to lose face, after having clamed to support the Syrian rebels, so it sent troops to Idlib. It also has observation posts built in Idlib since 2017 and wants them protected. It wants to raise the price of the regime offensive after more than a dozen Turkish soldiers were killed in early and mid-February.

Turkey appears to have provided some Syrian groups in Idlib with armored vehicles and Turkish shelling has backed them in clashes around Nayrab. However Russia and the Syrian regime claim to have destroyed numerous armored vehicles in clashes. What appears to be happening now is a larger build-up of Turkish army components, numbering some 15,000 troops and more than 1,000 armored vehicles, according to Turkish policy expert Yusuf Erim. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyp Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on Friday.

According to video and photos posted online Turkey has an impressive arsenal now in Idlib and in supporting positions inside Turkey. This may include an Aselsan Mounted Stinger System called Atilgan which was also spotted near the border. It is used for short range air defense. M60s and Leopard 2A4s are also on the way or already there. Spotters also saw T-155 Firtina self-propelled howitzers and T-122 Sakarya multi-rocket launch systems which are made by Roketsan. Also Turkish BMC Kirpi, a mine-resistant armored vehicle, and FNSS amphibious combat vehicles called ACV-15s, Otokar Cobra IIs and other vehicles were seen. Some of the M60T tanks that have been pictured on social media, based on visuals from both the Turkish side and regime air strikes, are alleged to be from a batch of 170 upgraded M60s Turkey built and upgraded with Israeli contracts in the early 2000s. The same tanks were reportedly spotted last year in Turkey’s offensive near Tel Abyad.

The constellation of armored vehicles points not only to Turkey’s commitment but also the chance it wants to see how well its weapons systems work against the Syrian regime and Russian air force. So far Turkey has mostly husbanded its armor on the border  when sending Syrian rebels to fight Kurdish groups in 2018 and 2019. Turkey has preferred to use its air force against Kurdish  groups, but so far the airspace of Syria has been closed to Turkey. Russia and the Syrian regime only opened Syrian airspace so Turkey could attack the US-backed SDF in October 2019 and the Kurdish YPG in 2018. But then the regime and Russia closed the same airspace. Now Turkey must see how its sophisticated weapons systems, linked to its partnership with NATO, will perform. Mostly Ankara is just flexing its muscles so far.