Turkey seems to be heading towards war as Ottoman era alliances repeated

Turkey seems to be heading to war with Europe in a possible repeat of a conflict last seen during Ottoman times, said Koert Debeuf, an associate researcher for the Institute for European Studies.

The Turkish and Greek governments are trading political blows over territorial rights in the Mediterranean. Greece is speaking the language of war while Turkey refuses to compromise on its claims for oil and gas in Greek-claimed waters, Debeuf said in an analysis for the EU Observer news website on Monday.

“This is very dangerous. It is not clear which way we shall head,” Debeuf cited colonel Mustafa Kemal, who became known as Atatürk and the father of modern Turkey, as saying in a letter in the summer of 1914, just before World War One, which led to the end of the Ottoman Empire.

In some ways the current situation in the Mediterranean mirrors those historical times, Debeuf said. Today there are two enemy alliances, just as there were in 1914, when Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy were facing off against Britain, France and Russia. War against one country meant war against all.

Now there is the ‘revolutionary alliance’ of Turkey, Qatar, the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. They are vying for influence with the ‘status-quo entente’ of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, Debeuf said.

“This is not about isolated incidents around a specific theme – such as gas or oil extraction – but about a complex conflict of interests in a broad theatre that stretches from Greece and Libya to Iran,” he said.

This time, Europe is again showing signs of division. France, Greece, and Cyprus support the status-quo entente, while Spain and Malta seem more prepared to support the revolutionary alliance. Italy is jaywalking between the two, depending on the file, Debeuf said.

But the stakes are much higher than mere words and trade agreements, he said.

In July, a French frigate was targeted by the radar of a Turkish naval vessel when France sought to inspect a cargo ship for suspected smuggled arms destined for Libya. A month later, Greek and Turkish military vessels collided.

France has sent warships and fighter jets to Greece. The UAE has dispatched F-16s to the Greek island of Crete. Egypt, conducting a military build-up on the border with Libya, is threatening action against Turkish-backed forces in Libya if they seek to extend an advance to take territory near the country’s oil reserves.

Just as in 1914, none of these countries want a Great War, they only want to protect their national interests, just like they did a century age, Debeuf said.

“But if European nations break their unity and get caught up in a festering conflict, anything is possible again,” he said. “”This is very dangerous”, Atatürk might have said, “it is not clear which way we shall head.””