Iranian proxies have increased assaults on foreign forces since Soleimani killing The US has begun to move Patriot air-defence systems to Iraq to defend bases where its troops are deployed © AFP/Getty Images Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Save Katrina Manson in Washington, Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran and Chloe Cornish in Beirut AN HOUR AGOPrint this page2 US officials are increasingly concerned that Iran and its proxies are planning larger-scale attacks against American forces in Iraq as militant groups backed by the Islamic republic have stepped up their assaults in recent weeks. US President Donald Trump alluded to the fears this week by warning Tehran that it would pay a “heavy price” if Iran or allied militias targeted American interests. He also hinted at the vulnerability of the remaining 5,000 US troops in Iraq, two of whom were killed last month when militants fired a barrage of rockets at a military base north of Baghdad. “We’ve really, largely, left,” he told reporters of the American troops deployed in Iraq as part of a US-led coalition against Isis. “We’re down right now to a small number, but we have very powerful air power there.” The US has sizeable military assets in the region to launch strikes against militants and it has begun to move Patriot air-defence systems to Iraq to defend bases where its troops are deployed. But its ground forces in Iraq, many of them trainers for the Iraqi army, have been vulnerable to attack from militants who have launched multiple assaults on US troops since Mr Trump authorised the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most powerful military commander, in January. A top Iraqi militia leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was also killed in the US drone strike in Baghdad, but some analysts say rather than act as a deterrent it has emboldened Iran-backed Iraqi militants to launch more brazen attacks. Iran, which has vowed to drive American forces out of the region, has conducted only one direct act of retaliation for Soleimani’s killing, firing more than a dozen missiles at an Iraqi base hosting US troops. But Iran-aligned militants have launched at least 15 attacks on American and US-led coalition personnel in Iraq in the weeks since, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a non-partisan Washington think-tank. “Iran continues to escalate proxy attacks against the US in Iraq, demonstrating that it remains undeterred despite the January 3 strike that killed [Soleimani and Muhandis],” it said in a report this week. A senior Iranian analyst close to Tehran’s political establishment said Iran and militias in Iraq were “not scared” and were willing to target American forces with Katyusha rockets. “American forces are extremely vulnerable in Iraq and are not secure even inside Ain al-Assad base,” the person said, referring to one of the biggest Iraqi bases hosting US troops. Some experts calculate that Iran is prepared to incur losses that result from any forceful US response so long as repeatedly harming US forces dissuades Washington from keeping troops in Iraq. Recommended David Gardner Sanctions on Iran must be relaxed during the coronavirus crisis “Iran is carrying out a relatively low-cost but effective strategy to increase the pain for the US and for our Iraqi friends, so deterring Iran is not going to be a one-off event but will require a willingness to strike again and again,” said Mike Singh, a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. “The question is: is the US willing to pursue an indefinite campaign against Iranian proxies in the region given the clear desire — especially at the Pentagon — to shift attention away from the Middle East and towards Russia and China.” Mr Trump has repeatedly promised to withdraw US forces from the Middle East, but Iran hawks, including Mike Pompeo, secretary of state, have pushed for tough action against Tehran as part of a campaign of “maximum pressure”. Mr Trump authorised what the Pentagon called a “proportional” response following the attack last month that killed the two American soldiers, with the US striking five sites affiliated to Kata’ib Hizbollah, one of the more militant pro-Iran Iraqi militias. But even limited retaliatory attacks risk backfiring and fuelling anti-US sentiment in Iraq. The US strikes wounded some militiamen, but also killed six Iraqis, including five members of the official security forces. That prompted Iraq’s military to recommend “the speedy implementation of the parliament’s decision on the issue of the coalition’s withdrawal”. In Iran, there was speculation this week that the US was preparing to strike against the Islamic republic following US media reports of a debate in the Trump administration about whether Washington should mount an aggressive campaign against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. After Mr Trump warned Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, wrote on Twitter: “Don’t be mislead [sic] by usual warmongers, AGAIN . . . Iran starts no wars, but teaches lessons to those who do.”
Content retrieved from: https://www.ft.com/content/1242d95b-54a7-4b57-9c95-406ad49f868f.