US “peace deal”: The guide for the perplexed with updates

The US is working on a secretive peace deal that is supposed to be rolled out in June. It has led to many rumors and discussions about why the administration has waited thiss long to put forward what has been called the “deal of the century.” With the Israeli April elections over and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still on top, the Trump administration seems to think it can move forward. But there are still details to look over and it says it wants to wait until after Ramadan to show the world what is behind the curtain.

In this post I will provide details and updates about the peace deal and discussions about it. What I know personally from some conversations is that the peace deal is precise and seeks to cover a lot of details. Palestinians may be wary of it but they are also divided and isolated. More than two and a half decades after Oslo the leadership in Ramallah is aging. It has said it won’t deal with the US after the Trump administration recognized Jerusalem in December 2017 and moved the embassy in May 2018. In Gaza a year of ‘Great Return March’ protests led to 260 deaths and thousands injured and achieved little for Hamas. It strained relations with Egypt and Qatar and also appeared to give Israel a stronger hand in dealing with Hamas and Qatar. Hamas crackdown on protests angered activists in the West Bank and Hamas affiliates saw setbacks in student elections in Hebron. In addition there were concerns that Israel might make an agreement with Hamas, further weakening the PA.

There are major economic problems in Ramallah and the West Bank with US cuts to UNRWA and also because Israel has held back customs duties. For instance there is an unprecedented financial crises. For instance Israel froze $138 million in tax transfers due to the PA paying Palestinians accused of terrorism and their families.

I have written about hurdles and challenges any deal faces in Jordan. It appears the US has not kept Jordan sufficiently in the loop in the run-up.

In no specific order, here are some details.

Ambassador Friedman

The US is seeking to “think out of the box and capture the imagination and hopes of both sides for a better life,” US Ambassador David Friedman told The Jerusalem Post on April 24, 2019.

Kushner

The Jerusalem Post also notes “Kushner, in comments on Tuesday, said the administration is approaching the issue differently than others have in the past. While past efforts have focused on getting peace talks started in the hope that they will lead to an agreement, the idea behind this plan is to start by laying out a solution ‘and then we’ll work on a process to try to get there.’”

What about Egypt

Smadar Perry writes at Ynet. “Initially, Saudi Arabia was meant to be the Arab world’s representatives in the deal, but Trump’s ‘excellent friend’ [Egypt’s] Sisi has recently found himself in the driver’s seat. Although many in the United States have an issue with both of them – Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman is linked to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, while Sisi’s government has a problematic human rights record – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has swayed Trump’s heart in favor of the Egyptian leader.”

What is Egypt’s part. “Sisi’s main role in the deal – even though he probably doesn’t know all the details himself – is clear: to recruit the moderate Arab world into supporting Trump’s peace plan. The Egyptian leader can potentially recruit Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf states, and perhaps even Qatar, which despite being at odds with the Saudis, maintains a warm relationship with Egypt. Sisi has already taken a step in this direction by announcing that Egypt is committed to the two-state solution.”

Sisi recently held a referendum and his rule is cemented. He is also eyeing developments in Libya and Sudan.

How long is the deal?

According to reports in February the deal was largely finalized by that time. Trey Yingst reported “The final draft of the administration’s ‘Deal of the Century’ is 175 to 200 pages long — and fewer than five people have access to the complete document, sources told Fox News.”

Not Sinai

The US denied rumors, likely fed by other agendas, that the deal might include part of Sinai. Nevertheless some Israelis continue to put forward this theory.

Does it end the two-state solution

Some have sought to feed theories that there will no longer be a two state solution or that the status quo will end, feeding ideas such as Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank.

What about Jordan

Jason Greenblatt, Assistant to the 45th President of the USA & Special Representative for International Negotiations, says that rumors that the deal involves a “confederation” with Jordan re also false.

What France thinks