US seeks to pivot to Turkey-first policy on Syria

FEBRUARY 12, 2020 09:57

The US has come with strong words in support of Turkey’s policies in northern Syria, hoping to push Turkey to greater action against the Syrian regime and Russia in Syria’s northern Idlib province. US envoy James Jeffrey landed in Turkey on Tuesday where he commemorated Turkey’s “martyrs” who had been killed by the Syrian regime and pledged support for Ankara.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Jeffrey have been seeking to pivot the US back to a Turkey-first foreign policy in regards to Syria, to slowly jettison parts of what they see as the problematic Kurdish region of eastern Syria and get online with big power politics to confront the Russians and Iranians. The Russian-backed Syrian regime offensive in Idlib that began last year and has increased in recent weeks has led to 700,000 Syrians fleeing toward Turkey and has killed Turkish soldiers. Turkey has sent armored vehicle columns to Idlib to warn the Syrian regime. Turkey has observation points in Idlib in northern Syria, a system of posts it set up after 2017. In 2018 Turkey and Russia signed a ceasefire deal for Idlib. Idlib is controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham a n extremist group linked to al Qaeda. The Syrian regime sees HTS and Syrian rebel groups  as “terrorists.” Turkey backs Syrian rebel groups, which it has used to fight Kurds in Afrin and Tel Abyad in 2018 and 2019.

Turkey’s goal since the election of US President Donald Trump was to get the US to abandon Kurdish partners in eastern Syria and pivot back to supporting Syrian rebels and Turkey. But Turkey hedged and also decided to work closely with Russia and Iran on the Astana peace process for Syria. Turkey also bought Russian air defense and Turkey and Russian leaders enjoyed smiles and ice cream in recent meetings. In the US by contrast Turkey sent security staff to attack peaceful protesters in Washington and has routinely slammed the US for supporting “terrorists” in eastern Syria. The US says the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces are its temporary, transaction and tactical partners to fight ISIS. The US helped create the SDF but in the fall of 2019 when Turkey decided to invade areas held by the SDF the US asked the SDF to dismantle defenses and then moved US forces so Turkey could bomb the SDF.

The US hoped that it could pivot away from the Kurds, which US policymakers are split on supporting. Some in the US saw the Kurdish fighters as helpful against ISIS and accused Turkey of ethnic cleansing and using extremists. But other US policymakers see the Syrian Kurds as spoiling US relations with Turkey and want to get rid of them as a partner so that Turkey can be leveraged against Iran. These policymakers don’t mind if Turkey buys Russian arms and if Turkey attacks US protesters, or if Turkey hosts Hamas, because their main goal is to find a way to create daylight between Iran, Turkey and Russia in Syria. Where there is daylight there may be room to maneuver and get Turkey to shift.

The  US delegation to Turkey this week is a sign of commitment. In addition to Pompeo’s support on Twitter, Jeffrey and Syria envoy Joel Rayburn and Richard Outzen, advisor for Syrian engagement, are involved in talks with Turkey. Only a phone call between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is missing to show how serious the US is.

The pro-Turkey policy makers have now won out in discussions about Syria, arguing that Turkey is a NATO ally and that even if it works with Iran and Russia it’s better to have an ally that works with your adversaries than temporary partners who are expendable, like the anti-ISIS fighters the US trained in eastern Syria. This is the tried and true US policy that has been done with Pakistan and with other countries that feed anti-American rhetoric at home but are ostensibly US allies. Unlike Iran, the US prefers big power state-to-state relations than local partners and proxies on the ground.

To bring back relations with Turkey the US may offer to incentivize it back into the F-35 program, or give it Patriot missiles to replace the S-400s, to fund Syrian refugees and rebels, to reduce US support for the SDF or enable a new Turkish operation in eastern Syria, or renew drone links to help Turkey carry out airstrikes on the Kurdistan Workers Party in Iraq, or reduce penalties associated with trade with Iran. There is no shortage of menu options, even if some of them take time to unravel the bureaucracy of.

Much depends on Turkey’s demands. Turkey has never wanted a conflict with the Syrian regime. It’s main goal was to defeat the Kurdish groups in Syria that it says are linked to the PKK. Idlib has always been a problem for Turkey because it is controlled by extremists but has numerous civilians who will demand entrance to Turkey if the regime takes Idlib. This puts Ankara in a tough spot. It can’t abandon Idlib. But it  doesn’t want Idlib. Now that Turkish soldiers have been killed it can’t  be seen to be walking away. But Turkey may not want to follow a US policy of increased confrontation with Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran. It will prefer to get some other support from the US.

Meanwhile Russia has condemned continued “terrorist” attacks from Idlib on its forces. Russian officials say that it “understands difficulties that our Turkish partners face. However, the positions of Syrian forces, the positions of Russian forces – the Hmeymim air base, drone attacks – come  under fire  daily, we  cannot just sit and wait what will happen in Idlib next.” Russia sees Turkey as a key partner. It won’t want the Americans running in to take away that partnership. The US high profile visit of envoy Jeffrey may prod the Russians to find  a new agreement with Ankara. Prior to that agreement Ankara may wring some concessions from the US.

For the US the big question is how to convince the SDF in eastern Syria to keep holding thousands of ISIS prisoners and fighting ISIS while the US works more closely with Turkey. Quietly the message has been that the SDF should work with the Syrian regime and Moscow and find an arrangement for the day after the US leaves the rest of eastern Syria. But missions like the defeat-ISIS campaign are like oil tankers. They don’t  turn on a dime. $200 million is being sent by the US for a budget for eastern Syria and other groups the US supports to defeat ISIS this year. Defeating ISIS is now being done a shoe string, far removed from the 2018 plans to “stabilize” eastern Syria.