US vs. the Mossad: Assassination tactics and the murder of Soleimani

Donald Trump’s message to Iran this week was loud and clear: Don’t test me.

Explosions, fireworks, 12 dead – and all in the area of a major international airport.

There is a stark difference between how the world’s premier power, the United States, and a strong intelligence agency from a regional power, like the Mossad, do business. The assassination of Iran’s IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis is a case in point.

It’s not that the CIA never carries out clandestine assassinations – it does.

And it’s not that Israel never blows up its adversaries in places like Syria – occasionally it does.

But Israel prefers to act under the radar, often using the Mossad to take out terrorist masterminds or weapons scientists without leaving a trace.

In fact, the most common sign of alleged Mossad assassinations of terrorists in recent years, from Malaysia to Tunis, has been the high level of professionalism and complete absence of any footprints to the extent that observers doubt almost anyone but the Mossad could be that clandestine.

The Mossad also tries to take out only one person at a time and usually does so in a less public area, making the killing as low profile as possible.

Sometimes reports of an alleged Mossad assassination take time to even creep into the media, because other than unexpectedly finding a dead terrorist’s body, there is no indication of what happened and when.

This was not the goal of the Trump administration on Thursday night when it killed Soleimani in as public a place as possible, with large casualties to his troops and flamboyant flare.

Whereas Israeli officials do not even comment on Mossad operations, Trump tweeted an American flag as the Pentagon broke the news to make sure he took credit for the attack.

The Trump administration wanted to remind Iran in the most public and heavy-handed way that the US is still the world’s premier power, and that Iran, even with all of its proxies and tricks, is comparatively a lightweight.

Trump’s decision to eliminate Soleimani publicly in Iraq’s airport could have a decisive impact on the US presence in that country.

While Trump likely would prefer to maintain the freedom of US forces to be stationed in bases in Iraq, his message here was that – bases or no bases – the US will hit Iran and it will hit it hard if it strikes at US forces.

This does not mean that Israel can count on the US to defend Israeli interests, too.

It especially does not mean that the US will use force against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, and Iran still may escalate against the US in other ways. Trump may still back down at some point down the road

But his message to Iran on Thursday night was loud and clear: Don’t test me.

He may be in an election year and therefore may not want to get dragged into a war in the Middle East, but if Iran tries to embarrass him by hitting US troops, he is stating loudly that there will be a price to pay and it may be much higher than anyone expected.