Will Iranian-backed militias attack Turkey in Iraq? – analysis

Kataib Hezbollah, which is an Iranian-backed group in Iraq, reportedly threatened Turkish forces in Iraq over the weekend. Turkey has numerous outposts and bases in northern Iraq and Ankara often carried out airstrikes against Yazidi minorities in Sinjar.

The Turkish role in Iraq, where Turkey says it is “fighting terrorism,” has caused controversy before with Baghdad. Pro-Iranian groups tend to view Turkey as violating Iraq’s sovereignty, an irony considering these groups work with Iran which also violates Iraq’s sovereignty.

According to Iran’s Fars News, the Kataib Hezbollah group was conducting a ceremony for a “high ranking martyr” when the comments against Turkey were made. The group said that it defends the Iraqi nation and that anyone who insults the Iraqi authorities “insults all the people of this country and the Muslim ummah.” According to the statement, the movement “went on to address the parliamentary elections.” Then, they turned their attention to other issues such as Yemen.

On February 3, a previously unknown militia in Iraq took responsibility for attacking the UAE using drones. This was apparently coordinated with Iran and Kataib Hezbollah. Kataib has attacked Saudi Arabia in the past using drones. Iran has encouraged the Houthis in Yemen to attack the UAE and is now using Iraq to do the same.

Then Kataib Hezbollah threatened Turkey. “The knife has reached the bone,” the statement concluded, referring to Turkey’s attacks on northern Iraq.” It is enough to ignore the lives of our people and the [role] of the sovereignty of our country…Know that a nation that shattered the grandeur of the world’s greatest power [the United States] and rubbed its snout on the ground can also rub your nose into the ground,” the statement said.

Iraqi Shi’ite Muslim men from the Iranian-backed group Kataib Hezbollah wave the party’s flags as they walk along a street painted in the colours of the Israeli flag during a parade marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, in Baghdad (credit: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)

The group demanded Turkey withdraw its forces “before it’s too late,” according to Iran’s Fars News, which is considered close to the IRGC. Kataib Hezbollah is also close to the IRGC. Its previous commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was with IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani when the US killed both of them in January 2020.

According to the report, the Kataib Hezbollah threat may be due to increased Turkish airstrikes in Iraq. Turkey claims to be bombing terrorists, but its airstrikes are increasing to areas near Iraqi forces in Sinjar and Mahmour. Turkey usually operates mountain bases in the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq. However, Turkey’s Bashiqa base, which was established during the war on ISIS and overlooks Nineveh plains, has been targeted by pro-Iran militias in the past.

Reports say rockets targeted the Turkish base in January 2022, December, November and April 2021. Pro-Iran militias have targeted US forces in Erbil in the Kurdish region several times over the last two years. This includes a February 2021 attack and a drone attack in April 2021, as well as an attack at the end of September 2020.