Will Russia get involved in Iran Isfahan drone attack tensions?- analysis

Iran’s regime is pushing several narratives about a drone attack on a military facility in Isfahan. According to Iran’s air defense force commander Alireza Sabahifard, they are ready for “any threat,” as quoted in Iran’s pro-IRGC Fars News on Monday. In addition, Iran’s Mehr news says that Russian “intel services” are analyzing the recent attack on an Iranian “military site.” This would appear to contradict reports at Iran’s other pro-government Tasnim news that says the attack was a failure.

If it was a failure why is Iran seeking out the Russians?

“In any case, we only need to condemn any such actions that are directed against a sovereign state, ” the Kremlin said in a statement on Monday, Russia’s pro-government Sputnik reported. Iran’s Mehr News says that Russia has condemned the attack.

Eyewitness footage shows what is said to be the moment of an explosion at a military industry factory in Isfahan, Iran, January 29, 2023 (credit: POOL/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

“In any case, we only need to condemn any such actions that are directed against a sovereign state.”

The Kremlin

Russia has also condemned the attack. “We strongly condemn any provocative actions that could potentially provoke an uncontrolled escalation of tension in an already far from calm region. Such destructive actions can have unpredictable consequences for peace and stability in the Middle East,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement.

Meanwhile Iran has summoned Ukraine’s envoy over comments made by a Ukraine government advisor that seemed to say Iran had been “warned” about providing drones to Russia. Russia has used Iranian-supplied Shahed drones to attack Ukraine.

The Iranian reports now seem to indicate that Tehran wants to cement the Russia-Iran partnership potentially, at least in terms of these issues relating to drones. Russia has hinted at “unpredictable consequences.”

Iran’s Mehr news then says a source at Sputnik’s Persian service said that “the unmanned aerial vehicles involved in Saturday’s attack were ordinary off-the-shelf drones, not ‘strike UAVs,’ as initially reported in some quarters.”

This hints at commercially available drones and also means they are harder to trace because “off-the-shelf” means they are generic. “The Iranian Defense Ministry announced that its air defense units have repelled a drone attack on a military workshop in the central city of Isfahan,” Mehr notes.

Did Iran succeed or is Russia interested? It can’t be both

If Iran had repelled the attack then why does the same media say Russia is so outraged and interested? Press TV in Iran meanwhile says that the explosion that occurred due to the drone attack happened at a defense industry complex.

Iran’s Foreign Minister meanwhile was meeting with his Qatari counterpart, the Iranian media said. “This cowardly act was carried out today as part of efforts made by the enemies of the Iranian nation in recent months to make the Islamic Republic insecure,” Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian said in a presser.

Meanwhile, another Iranian website IRNA reported about Russia’s condemnation of the attack as well “earlier on Sunday, Iran’s Ministry of Defense announced that a quadcopter drone attack on a defense industrial complex in the central Iranian province of Isfahan has failed.” The use of the term “quadcopter” is interesting here because it also hints at small drones and quadcopters tend to be commercially available recreational drones. However, quadcopter-style drones, don’t usually have a long range.

While Mehr News had said that Russian intel was interested in the attack, but didn’t elaborate further. Russia’s TASS state media said, “Moscow condemns the drone attack on Iran and Russian intelligence is trying their best to get a full picture of what happened.”

This report says that Russia has said the following: “Naturally, our services are analyzing information in order to get the more or less full picture of the incident,” the Kremlin official said, “replying to a question as to whether Russia has any intel as to who may have been behind the drone attack on Iran.”

This comment by Russia doesn’t seem to go as far as the Iranians would like it to. It only suggests Russia is “analyzing” the information and that Russia is interested and perhaps concerned. The overall narrative by the plethora of Iranian state and semi-state media leaves many questions about what Iran is trying to say and which narrative it wants the region to accept; and also what might come next.

Clearly, Iran wants Russia to be interested in the drone attack and it wants to condemn Ukraine for appearing to make light of the attack. This is part of Tehran’s desire for a stronger alliance with Russia. Iran is selling drones to Russia and Russia has used those drones to attack Ukraine. However, it is unclear if Russia has acquired more drones or if it is running low on stocks.